Ukrainian Drone Attack and the Future of War

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:04

Hello listeners.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:04

Welcome to another episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:07

Sorry for the brief, uh, hiatus.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:09

It was not intentional.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:10

Just had some guest cancel, some personal life.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:12

Things come up, but we're back at it.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:14

Um, after the Ukrainian drone attack on Russia, I had to get sim on the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:17

podcast as quickly as possible because I have been very, uh, spun up on this.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:21

Uh, and sim was a nice sober corrective.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:23

He told me some of the ways that I was right to.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:25

Feel this way, but also was like, Hey, Jacob, like, read it back a little bit.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:28

It's not like, it's not like, uh, fundamentally earth shattering either.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:31

So, um, I hope you enjoy this episode as much as I did.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:34

I always learn so much when I, when I talk to sim and the folks of his ilk.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:38

You can write to me@jacobatjacob.com if you have any questions, comments,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:41

concerns, et cetera about the podcast.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:43

Otherwise, we've got a full slate of guests coming up for this month.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:47

So buckle your seat belts, uh, cheers and see you up.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:52

All right, SIM it's been too long since, uh, you were on the podcast, which

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:55

by the way, I think, um, reflects the general level of fatigue around the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:01

Russia, Ukraine war, the ongoing war.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:04

Like even I have gotten fatigued by some of the news around it.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:07

Um, and so we haven't had you on recently to check in.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:09

And then lo and behold, last week, the Ukrainians, uh, pull, pull

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:13

a real rabbit out of their hat.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:15

Um, they.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:17

They attack Russia with what?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:19

Over a hundred drones.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:20

Uh, the reporting I've seen, you know, the drones cost like, you know,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:23

a couple hundred dollars per drone.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:26

Um, and they destroy somewhere between, I don't know, uh, a fourth and a third

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:32

of Russia strategic bomber fleet.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:33

Like those are some of the statistics that I've seen.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:36

Um, and for me, it made me stand up in my, or sit up in my chair, stand

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:39

up in my chair too, uh, and rethink.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:41

You know, the global military balance of power.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:44

What does this mean for great conventional powers versus asymmetric?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:47

Um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:48

Attacks from smaller powers that are next to them.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:51

Uh, it's hard not to think of the Israeli attack on Hezbollah with the pagers.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:55

And it's hard not to think of the Houthis just chilling there and Yemen like still

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:59

bombing whatever they wanna bomb, even though Biden and Trump have both tried to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:02

scare them and bomb them into submission.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:05

Um, so I wanted to have you on to ask.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:07

You, I mean, we can talk about, and I'm sure we'll get into sort of the tactical

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:10

aspects of the Russia, Ukraine war, because even with this massive Ukrainian

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:13

success, it doesn't look like things are going particularly well for Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:16

And Russia's been using drones to its own, uh, to its own, you know,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:20

great effect on their side and seizing territory from Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:23

But tell me, as somebody who follows this, this stuff much more granularly

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:26

than I do, was it a similar Oh shit moment for you, or was it like.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:31

Yeah, this is like, they just, I mean, yeah, it's a, it's a higher value target.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:34

Like they upped the ante a little bit, but this is what we've been seeing

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:37

for years, and this is gonna be, is continued gonna be the future of war.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:40

So take that, whatever direction you want and we can dive into what all this means.

Sim Tack: 00:02:45

Yeah.

Sim Tack: 00:02:45

Thank you fir First of all, thank you for, uh, for having me again.

Sim Tack: 00:02:48

Um, so on, on the attack itself, um, I, I think it definitely stands out as.

Sim Tack: 00:02:56

Um, an anomalous operation, right?

Sim Tack: 00:02:59

Both in the way that it was set up and the effects that it achieved.

Sim Tack: 00:03:03

Um, so it's, you know, we've seen a lot of back and forth attacks with

Sim Tack: 00:03:07

drones, but not quite like this, right?

Sim Tack: 00:03:10

Not these type of targets, not this type of simultaneous reach, uh, across Russia.

Sim Tack: 00:03:17

Um, one big thing maybe to start at, uh, to address is you, you were

Sim Tack: 00:03:22

mentioning you've seen a lot of those.

Sim Tack: 00:03:24

Statistics numbers being thrown around.

Sim Tack: 00:03:26

Initially I think the, the Ukrainian SBU was claiming 41 aircraft destroyed.

Sim Tack: 00:03:33

Mm-hmm.

Sim Tack: 00:03:34

Um, you know, people making calculations, that's this percentage of the

Sim Tack: 00:03:37

strategic fleet, et cetera, et cetera.

Sim Tack: 00:03:40

Um, so obviously one of the first things that, that I've been

Sim Tack: 00:03:44

doing, one of the things I've been looking at for the past week is.

Sim Tack: 00:03:48

Um, the satellite imagery coming out of those different bases that were struck

Sim Tack: 00:03:54

right, or allegedly struck, um, because there were five air bases inside Russia

Sim Tack: 00:04:00

that were initially mentioned, four main ones where there were some indications

Sim Tack: 00:04:04

that that strikes actually taken place.

Sim Tack: 00:04:07

Um, so the interesting thing is that at least in satellite imagery.

Sim Tack: 00:04:13

We can only observe damage to aircraft in two of those air bases.

Sim Tack: 00:04:18

The other air bases might have been attacked.

Sim Tack: 00:04:21

I can't rule that out, but there's no indications of that.

Sim Tack: 00:04:24

There's no visible damage to aircraft, there's no burnt down plots of grass or

Sim Tack: 00:04:30

foliage as we see at the other places where the explosives set that off.

Sim Tack: 00:04:36

Um, so you know that that's the first kind of dampener on, on just.

Sim Tack: 00:04:41

The scale of, of this operational, at least the scale of its success.

Sim Tack: 00:04:45

Um, second to that is when we look at those two air fields where there was

Sim Tack: 00:04:50

actually damage observed, the number of aircraft that was destroyed gets

Sim Tack: 00:04:56

nowhere near the, the number of 41 that Ukrainian sources initially alleged.

Sim Tack: 00:05:02

Um, I think all combined we've got, um.

Sim Tack: 00:05:09

11 aircraft that were completely destroyed.

Sim Tack: 00:05:12

Uh, seven, uh, I'm just gonna check the numbers, make sure

Sim Tack: 00:05:17

I'm saying the right thing.

Sim Tack: 00:05:18

But yeah, seven T 95 Bear bombers.

Sim Tack: 00:05:22

Um, and then four TU 22, uh, which are, uh, the, the jets versus the, um, uh,

Sim Tack: 00:05:31

the bear, which are the, the big kind of B 52 ish looking, uh, aircraft.

Sim Tack: 00:05:37

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:05:38

So four to 20 twos, and then there's two additional T 20 twos, one that

Sim Tack: 00:05:44

in satellite imagery we can see it was at least damaged, uh, to one of

Sim Tack: 00:05:48

the wings, not completely destroyed.

Sim Tack: 00:05:51

Um, and then there's another to 22 that was likely critically damaged

Sim Tack: 00:05:57

based on some of the, some of the videos that Ukraine's put out.

Sim Tack: 00:06:01

So there's, there's one aircraft that's not among the others that we could see

Sim Tack: 00:06:04

in satellite imagery where you can see.

Sim Tack: 00:06:07

Some distinct damage behind the cockpit, uh, to diffuse lodge, um, which likely

Sim Tack: 00:06:12

makes it in a critical condition, needing some, some very serious repairs,

Sim Tack: 00:06:16

uh, if, if not a full write off.

Sim Tack: 00:06:18

So, um, you know, all combined, we're, we're talking about, um,

Sim Tack: 00:06:27

uh, about 13 of these, uh, of these bombers, these strategic

Sim Tack: 00:06:33

bombers that are out of action.

Sim Tack: 00:06:36

At least now one big caveat is, you know, there might be damage to some

Sim Tack: 00:06:41

other bombers that wasn't, um, easily observed in, in satellite imagery

Sim Tack: 00:06:46

that wasn't proven in the videos.

Sim Tack: 00:06:48

So there, there might be additional damage, but that number of 13 is

Sim Tack: 00:06:52

already several, um, several degrees lower than the, the 41 and the huge

Sim Tack: 00:06:59

percentages of that bomber fleet.

Sim Tack: 00:07:01

Um, even in, in those.

Sim Tack: 00:07:04

Individual air bases, there were many more aircraft that were not

Sim Tack: 00:07:07

hit than, than that were hit.

Sim Tack: 00:07:09

Right.

Sim Tack: 00:07:09

So, um, that's just an, an important thing.

Sim Tack: 00:07:12

So, um, when people are talking about what this means for the, you know,

Sim Tack: 00:07:20

nuclear balance of power in the world, um, obviously this has some effect,

Sim Tack: 00:07:26

but I don't think that this is a qualitative shift where, where Russia,

Sim Tack: 00:07:30

Russia's nuclear deed is suddenly.

Sim Tack: 00:07:33

Um, suddenly inoperable because of the loss of, of these aircraft.

Sim Tack: 00:07:39

Right.

Sim Tack: 00:07:39

I, I also don't think that, um, you know, something that a lot of people have

Sim Tack: 00:07:43

been talking about online is the, the potential threat to us strategic bombers,

Sim Tack: 00:07:49

uh, from similar type of drone attacks.

Sim Tack: 00:07:51

I, I also don't think that, um, that this attack necessarily shows that.

Sim Tack: 00:07:57

Uh, bombers are extremely weak or that would need to completely rethink

Sim Tack: 00:08:01

how bombers fit into the nuclear triad and, and, and things like that.

Sim Tack: 00:08:06

Um, so I, I think there's, there's a lot of, a lot of big talk, big

Sim Tack: 00:08:11

reactions to a very exciting operation.

Sim Tack: 00:08:16

Um, but I think as things calm down, we, we haven't strayed too far from the norm.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:22

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:23

That's, that's a good sober corrective.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:25

Um, let's, um, let's dive into a little bit more, 'cause I, I wanna

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:28

talk about the US bombers and the nuclear deterrent and everything

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:30

else, and I have questions about that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:31

But let's talk about just the nature of the attack itself.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:34

Um, so taking, taking your point that, um, at least what we know based on the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:39

satellite imagery and the data that you've been able to gather, maybe not as big an

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:43

attack as what the Ukrainian said, um, but is it, is the quality of even if it was

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:47

only two bases, and even if it is only.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:50

13, uh, you know, strategic bombers, that's 13 more than they were able

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:53

to bomb this entire war so far.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:56

Is, is this a qualitative shift in the ability of smaller

Jacob Shapiro: 00:08:59

powers to attack larger powers?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:01

Does this give Ukraine some kind of long, long range, like strike

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:06

capability that it didn't have before?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:08

Or to your point, is this really just like, hey, like the, the,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:11

the fact that they have lowered the numbers, um, suggests that

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:14

this is just, uh, relatively.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:17

Relatively normal.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:18

It seems not normal to me 'cause I can't think of Ukraine being able to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:21

do, you know, if, if even a quarter of what they've claimed is true.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:24

That seems like a big deal to me.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:26

Are you saying that well, even that's not that big of a deal?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:28

Or are you, are you sort of correcting down from the numbers but saying No,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:31

this still represents a transformative moment in the history of war?

Sim Tack: 00:09:35

Uh, I don't believe it's a transformative moment, um,

Sim Tack: 00:09:39

because this threat has existed.

Sim Tack: 00:09:41

Right.

Sim Tack: 00:09:42

We, we have seen.

Sim Tack: 00:09:43

Similar kinds of drone attacks.

Sim Tack: 00:09:46

Um, uh, I think it was 2008, 2009, when, when we had those,

Sim Tack: 00:09:52

uh, alleged assassination drones targeting Maduro in, in Venezuela.

Sim Tack: 00:09:57

We've seen Israel use, um, these kind of quadcopter, explosive

Sim Tack: 00:10:03

laden drones, uh, for attacks.

Sim Tack: 00:10:05

So the idea of using these kind of drones to.

Sim Tack: 00:10:10

To attack military targets is, is definitely not new.

Sim Tack: 00:10:14

Um, what stands out about this operation is how close they managed to get

Sim Tack: 00:10:19

inside Russia, far behind enemy lines.

Sim Tack: 00:10:21

'cause that's where these bombers live, right?

Sim Tack: 00:10:23

They, they sit at airfields that are nowhere near the front line.

Sim Tack: 00:10:26

So your, your other systems with more limited range cannot get there.

Sim Tack: 00:10:31

Um, I mean, these drones themselves have fairly limited range.

Sim Tack: 00:10:34

You physically have to get next to the airport to be

Sim Tack: 00:10:37

able to conduct these strikes.

Sim Tack: 00:10:39

So what sets this operation apart is the, the nature of it as an

Sim Tack: 00:10:45

intelligence operation, right?

Sim Tack: 00:10:47

It's, it's the, the infiltration of Russia, it's the preparation of the

Sim Tack: 00:10:53

equipment, the, you know, a lot of people talking about the, the wooden

Sim Tack: 00:10:55

boxes on the, on the trucks, et cetera.

Sim Tack: 00:10:58

Um, it's, it's that kind of intelligence operation that allowed Ukraine

Sim Tack: 00:11:04

to get close to the air fields.

Sim Tack: 00:11:06

Then strike them simultaneously, which is an important element

Sim Tack: 00:11:10

because that starts to go into repeatability of an attack like this.

Sim Tack: 00:11:16

Why do you strike all these air airports or air bases at the same time?

Sim Tack: 00:11:20

Because you know, you might only get one shot, right?

Sim Tack: 00:11:23

Once you conduct an attack like that.

Sim Tack: 00:11:25

Russia is aware of this kind of operation.

Sim Tack: 00:11:29

They're gonna be on alert looking for Ukrainian infiltrate inside Russia.

Sim Tack: 00:11:34

Trucks showing up near air bases, things like that.

Sim Tack: 00:11:38

So doing the exact same thing over again is probably gonna be

Sim Tack: 00:11:42

more difficult in the future.

Sim Tack: 00:11:44

Um, and, and that I think is also the key reason why I don't see it

Sim Tack: 00:11:49

as a transformative event in the way war is conducted because, um,

Sim Tack: 00:11:56

these kind of one-off creative, clandestine, or intelligence operations,

Sim Tack: 00:12:01

whatever you want to call it.

Sim Tack: 00:12:02

Um, you're always going to have those in war.

Sim Tack: 00:12:06

They're, they're, you know, the product of creative approaches to, to real problems.

Sim Tack: 00:12:11

Um, but if something is not a, a threat or a capability that is

Sim Tack: 00:12:17

sustainable, um, I don't think it really reshapes the battlefield.

Sim Tack: 00:12:21

And, and that's the big thing here where yes, it's, it's great for

Sim Tack: 00:12:26

Ukraine that they were able to take out these aircraft and these aircraft.

Sim Tack: 00:12:29

Apart from being, uh, part of, of Russia's strategic force.

Sim Tack: 00:12:34

Uh, of course we're also very much engaged in launching, uh, precision missiles into

Sim Tack: 00:12:40

Ukraine, into western Ukraine, et cetera.

Sim Tack: 00:12:43

Um, so there's a very direct reason for Ukraine to want to

Sim Tack: 00:12:46

take out these air airplanes.

Sim Tack: 00:12:48

And, um, so their success is definitely not meaningless.

Sim Tack: 00:12:52

But I think in the longer term, this capability or this operation does not.

Sim Tack: 00:12:57

Deny Russia the use of those bombers.

Sim Tack: 00:13:00

For the duration of the conflict.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:03

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:04

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:04

I, I, I wanna get to you Ukrainian.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:06

We'll, we'll put a pin in that 'cause we'll come back to Ukrainian

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:08

intentions and the timing of this and all those other things.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:11

Uh, but I want to push a little bit more on the nature of this attack, because you

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:14

raised, you know, Israel using drones.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:16

Um, okay.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:17

But Israel is going after, you know, non-state militias, maybe sort of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:21

sclerotic, you know, authoritarian, uh, Arab regimes when it, when it has

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:25

those drones, Maduro like, okay, like some drones going after a single guy.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:28

This is, you know, going after a country's conventional air force and.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:33

Striking a meaningful blow against a, a country's conventional air force.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:36

So in that way it seems like a huge escalation.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:39

But you, what you might, I, I can hear you saying to me, okay, but that's

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:42

just a difference in degree, Jacob.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:44

But let me give you a tangible example, um, to sort of test what you're saying.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:48

Um, you know, one of the things I've sort of taken for granted, um, for.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:53

I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:53

Over a decade now, since you and and I, since you and I were together at

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:56

Stratford, I've taken for granted that Israel could never really

Jacob Shapiro: 00:13:59

strike Iran's nuclear capability because it was just too far away.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:03

Like the planes were, their planes couldn't get there.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:05

They would need help refueling, or they would need some, you know, they would

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:08

need the United States or some other actor to help make a strike realistic.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:12

And it wasn't clear that any actor was gonna support them.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:15

And if they were, you were gonna see those actions before it happened.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:17

So it wasn't gonna be that big of a secret.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:19

Um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:20

Could that change?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:21

Like can Israel use these drones that you've been talking about?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:23

Not to just wipe out parking lots in the Gaza Strip, but to go after Iran's

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:28

nuclear program because that, like, that's where then that would be a sort

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:31

of change and the capability of a nation to conduct war, if it is or is this like,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:36

well, not unless Jacob, they have the Mossad on the ground having recruited

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:40

Iranians who are actually controlling the things and doing the things.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:43

So you would need the intel operation in order to pull it off

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:45

and maybe you only get one shot.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:14:47

So, uh, react to that example for me.

Sim Tack: 00:14:50

So they, they have done that, not, not necessarily with

Sim Tack: 00:14:53

these same kind of drone attacks, but um, that has been a massive part

Sim Tack: 00:14:58

of, of Israel's, um, efforts to, to contain, uh, Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Sim Tack: 00:15:06

Um, and I'm thinking specifically of the, the attacks against

Sim Tack: 00:15:09

Iranian nuclear scientists.

Sim Tack: 00:15:12

Um, so there, there's been.

Sim Tack: 00:15:14

I, I can't even think of the, the exact dates, but the, by

Sim Tack: 00:15:17

the time we met at Stratford, it was already ongoing for years.

Sim Tack: 00:15:20

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:15:22

But, uh, I, I don't know if you remember those, uh, those operations,

Sim Tack: 00:15:26

like where, where they use a remote controlled gun in, in the back of an

Sim Tack: 00:15:30

SUV to target a vehicle that was driving by, you know, a, a real, real action

Sim Tack: 00:15:36

movie type intelligence operation.

Sim Tack: 00:15:39

You know, um, so that, that sub happens.

Sim Tack: 00:15:42

And, and Israel is definitely leaning on that, especially

Sim Tack: 00:15:45

at times when they don't have.

Sim Tack: 00:15:47

Um, um, that conventional ability to just go in and wipe everything out.

Sim Tack: 00:15:53

Um, I would say more recently we have seen another major change, which is the

Sim Tack: 00:15:59

complete disappearance of the Syrian Air Defense Network due to mm-hmm.

Sim Tack: 00:16:03

Events that occurred in Syria and that, uh, Israel very swiftly exploited to

Sim Tack: 00:16:09

take out anything remotely, uh, uh, air defense capable in inside Syria,

Sim Tack: 00:16:15

because now this actually does leave.

Sim Tack: 00:16:18

Uh, Israel with a large, um, a, a, an open flight route from Israel towards.

Sim Tack: 00:16:26

Uh, towards Iran that it didn't have before.

Sim Tack: 00:16:29

Um, by which I mean to say like, like, yes, conditions change, right?

Sim Tack: 00:16:33

Things, things change.

Sim Tack: 00:16:35

Um, so as, as operations by Mossad inside Iran occur, maybe, maybe they do get

Sim Tack: 00:16:43

experience from this and they, they are able to launch some kind of drone based,

Sim Tack: 00:16:49

uh, attack against these facilities.

Sim Tack: 00:16:51

But where all of that eventually comes back, and I'm gonna.

Sim Tack: 00:16:55

Link it to another element of our days at Strat four, um, when we used

Sim Tack: 00:16:59

to, um, have the guys in the tactical team talk about, um, the attack cycle.

Sim Tack: 00:17:07

Remember that?

Sim Tack: 00:17:08

Mm-hmm.

Sim Tack: 00:17:08

Like the, the whole course, you know, you start with, with surveillance,

Sim Tack: 00:17:12

your, your preparation, et cetera, before the actual attack.

Sim Tack: 00:17:15

So there's, there's a lot of components that take place.

Sim Tack: 00:17:18

Before, you know, in those cases we're talking about terrorist attacks, but

Sim Tack: 00:17:22

I think the attack cycle looks very similar when we're talking about, um,

Sim Tack: 00:17:27

you know, Israeli operations inside Iran or Ukrainian operations inside Russia.

Sim Tack: 00:17:33

Um, and I think that's where Russia really dropped the ball.

Sim Tack: 00:17:36

Um, in, in these cases.

Sim Tack: 00:17:38

The, the fact that Ukraine was able to.

Sim Tack: 00:17:42

Get these, um, these systems assembled inside.

Sim Tack: 00:17:46

Russia was able to deploy them near air bases, was able to scout those air bases.

Sim Tack: 00:17:52

Um, that's where you would normally have expected them to

Sim Tack: 00:17:57

have gotten caught or discovered.

Sim Tack: 00:17:59

Right.

Sim Tack: 00:18:00

Um, and, and that's why when we're talking about the risk of similar kind of attacks

Sim Tack: 00:18:04

against Western Air bases, um, in, in the US in in other NATO countries, um.

Sim Tack: 00:18:11

I would expect, and I would hope that, um, security procedures are much,

Sim Tack: 00:18:16

much tighter, and that if you start to drive around an airbase that hosts B

Sim Tack: 00:18:22

two bombers multiple times in a, in a short timeframe, you would probably get

Sim Tack: 00:18:28

pulled over and you'd have some really tough questions to, uh, to answer.

Sim Tack: 00:18:32

Um, same thing with a truck suddenly appearing.

Sim Tack: 00:18:36

Um, my assumption would be that there is very active, um, scanning for, for

Sim Tack: 00:18:43

objects appearing that don't belong in the areas of these strategic facilities.

Sim Tack: 00:18:47

Um, I, I think those are all types of things that are less ingrained

Sim Tack: 00:18:51

in the, the kind of Soviet style security services in Russia.

Sim Tack: 00:18:55

So maybe that exposes them.

Sim Tack: 00:18:57

A little more to this kind of attack.

Sim Tack: 00:19:00

But then as that attack happens, of course, that that also means that the next

Sim Tack: 00:19:04

time you try to hit those bombers, you're gonna have to do it slightly differently.

Sim Tack: 00:19:09

So it becomes another new creative intelligence operation that you have

Sim Tack: 00:19:13

to set up and you might succeed.

Sim Tack: 00:19:16

But I think that still makes it like a one-off type of attack rather than, you

Sim Tack: 00:19:21

know, we're able to actually suppress that capability on the Russian side.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:26

I think you're a little too sanguine of, at least in

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:28

the United States, about the, the thoroughness of the security here.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:32

I mean, we're talking about a country that just a couple months ago accidentally

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:35

fired a bunch of the employees that were supposed to be working on nuclear

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:38

safety and then tried to hire them back.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:40

I also, I don't know if you've seen the picture of this 22-year-old, uh,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:43

who is now apparently being tasked with, um, heading up the Center

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:46

for Prevention Programs at DHS.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:48

So like one of the primary like US departments for going after terrorism.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:52

Was working.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:53

I mean, no offense to those working in grocery stores, but he was in a

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:55

grocery store a year ago in his picture.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:19:57

Like if I was a terrorist, and I'm looking at this picture on, um, the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:00

Department of Homeland Securities website, I would be like, cool, like,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:03

probably security's not so good here.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:05

But, um, in, in any case, uh, I, I think though in your response,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:09

like, yes, Israel has assassinated Iranian scientists by car bombs in

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:13

some of these other ways, but could Israel knock out Iranian air defense?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:18

With a coordinated, huge, massive drone strike.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:20

Could it take out a nuclear facility with drones?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:24

Like that's the, the sort of leap.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:25

And I guess another, I'll let you respond to that, but another sort of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:28

test example for what you're talking about, and this is one that I think has

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:30

gotten a lot of currency and I'm, I'm curious to hear what your response is.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:33

I mean, I'm, I'm on record as saying I don't think China is

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:36

gonna invade Taiwan anytime soon.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:38

But let's say there's a naval conflict in the South China Sea and

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:41

China's on one side and the United States is on the other side of it.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:44

Um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:45

United States, like key to its naval power is its aircraft carriers.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:49

Uh, does using drones in this sort of manner basically just make the carriers

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:53

sitting ducks, like, I'm not thinking really about, oh, that the Chinese are

Jacob Shapiro: 00:20:56

gonna use drones to attack us, you know, air assets inside of the United States.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:21:01

But if you're in the South China Sea and you've got three carriers deployed.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:21:05

What at this point, makes those key warriors?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:21:06

Anything but sitting ducks for massive drone attacks from the Chinese, like that

Jacob Shapiro: 00:21:11

seems another way in which this completely transformed the balance of power in,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:21:14

in a conflict that we could imagine.

Sim Tack: 00:21:17

I, I mean, I mean, that's a very good use case.

Sim Tack: 00:21:19

And there's, there's actually a very good recent example on the use of

Sim Tack: 00:21:24

drones in, in kind of a conventional setting outside of Ukraine.

Sim Tack: 00:21:28

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:21:30

One of the big things I wanna say is when I'm saying that this attack by

Sim Tack: 00:21:33

Ukraine is not a transformative event.

Sim Tack: 00:21:37

That doesn't mean that the drones by themselves are not

Sim Tack: 00:21:41

transformative in warfare, right?

Sim Tack: 00:21:44

I just don't think that this event is the big unveiling of a new

Sim Tack: 00:21:47

capability that changes things.

Sim Tack: 00:21:49

But you're absolutely right.

Sim Tack: 00:21:50

The existence of these small drones and growing capabilities in coordinating

Sim Tack: 00:21:56

these drones with other types of operations, using swans, et cetera,

Sim Tack: 00:22:01

things that have been theorized and and talked about and practiced for decades.

Sim Tack: 00:22:05

Um, but that are now becoming more practical knowledge as they're

Sim Tack: 00:22:10

being executed on the battlefields.

Sim Tack: 00:22:12

Right.

Sim Tack: 00:22:12

I, I do believe that is a big difference and, and, you know, a big threat

Sim Tack: 00:22:16

to any, any war fighter out there.

Sim Tack: 00:22:18

Um, now the example I wanted to to mention is that in, um, uh, in the, the current

Sim Tack: 00:22:26

kind of simmering troubles between, uh, Pakistan and India, um, there, there

Sim Tack: 00:22:32

was actually an incident recently.

Sim Tack: 00:22:34

Um, that I, I heard from some people, um, where, uh, Pakistan used a number

Sim Tack: 00:22:42

of regular civilian drones, um, without arming or anything, no explosives

Sim Tack: 00:22:48

involved, um, to go and harass, uh, Indian forces as a distraction.

Sim Tack: 00:22:54

So they were, they were literally just flying drones into Indian

Sim Tack: 00:22:59

troops and into their positions, um, to keep them occupied while.

Sim Tack: 00:23:03

Actually executing other, uh, operations at the same time.

Sim Tack: 00:23:07

Um, so even something as simple as that when you're talking about Israel

Sim Tack: 00:23:12

leveraging this to, um, um, suppress or, or destroy Iranian air defenses or China

Sim Tack: 00:23:20

leveraging it to, um, to, let's, let's say distract the defenses of a US carrier

Sim Tack: 00:23:27

group, uh, I think that's very feasible.

Sim Tack: 00:23:30

The, the question is, how, how are you actually going to conduct it?

Sim Tack: 00:23:34

There's a lot of ways that you can approach that.

Sim Tack: 00:23:36

Um, obviously these drones themselves don't have the range to go from mainland

Sim Tack: 00:23:41

China to wherever, uh, a US carrier group might be hanging out at open seas.

Sim Tack: 00:23:46

Um, but, you know, let, let's assume the Chinese are launching these drones

Sim Tack: 00:23:51

from, from somewhere in the water.

Sim Tack: 00:23:53

Maybe they're even carrying them all the way there in unmanned.

Sim Tack: 00:23:57

Uh, unmanned surface vessels.

Sim Tack: 00:23:59

Uh, which, you know, another thing that we've seen really growing in importance

Sim Tack: 00:24:03

in Ukraine, the way, the way that Ukraine has used those kind of vessels to even

Sim Tack: 00:24:07

take down aircraft, uh, from open sea.

Sim Tack: 00:24:11

Um, so people, people are using these, these remote operated platforms or,

Sim Tack: 00:24:16

or even autonomous platforms in really creative ways and, and obviously

Sim Tack: 00:24:21

that is going to change a lot.

Sim Tack: 00:24:23

About the ways that that wars are fought.

Sim Tack: 00:24:26

And I, I don't think there's even a limit to that.

Sim Tack: 00:24:30

Um, but I think that just becomes an, an, uh, an overall part of the, the

Sim Tack: 00:24:36

technological evolution of, of warfare.

Sim Tack: 00:24:38

Right?

Sim Tack: 00:24:39

Um, and it's not necessarily specifically targeted against those strategic assets

Sim Tack: 00:24:45

like, uh, like the nuclear bombers.

Sim Tack: 00:24:48

Um, it's, it's a more.

Sim Tack: 00:24:50

General, um, evolution of, of the level of technology that your, your

Sim Tack: 00:24:55

standard war fighter is employing.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:24:59

Yeah.

Sim Tack: 00:24:59

Does that make sense?

Sim Tack: 00:25:01

It does, it does.

Sim Tack: 00:25:02

A little bit of a

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:02

rant.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:03

No, no, no.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:04

You're this, you're, you're literally here to go on rants.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:06

That's the whole point.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:07

Um, uh, okay.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:10

Well, one last example I wanna throw at you, and then I want to get into some

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:13

of the, well, actually, there's, there's two more conceptual questions I want to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:15

ask you, and then we'll get into some of the specifics about Russia, Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:19

Um, you know, we talked about Israel, Iran, uh, it sounds to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:21

me like you answered to China.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:22

Taiwan was, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:23

Actually, this does shake up how you would think about a

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:25

conflict in the South China Sea.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:27

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, you talked about India,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:28

Pakistan using its distraction.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:30

There's also, and, and this is the one where it starts to get very dystopian,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:33

um, where this now empowers non-state actors in a way that pre drones, they

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:39

wouldn't necessarily have had that power.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:40

I'm thinking specifically about Mexico, but you can imagine other examples

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:44

where you have groups like cartels who exist outside of the government, um, and

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:48

who have problems with the government.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:49

Does this now give them some kind of capability to go after

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:53

the conventional assets of the.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:55

Of the military, of the country that they're in.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:25:57

The cartels have used drones already for assassinations and for attacks in,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:01

you know, far flung areas and some of their turf wars and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:04

Even attacks on local police.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:06

But you haven't seen a Mexican cartel say, go after like a Mexican military

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:11

garrison or after a Mexican strategic air asset or something like that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:15

In part 'cause the conflict hasn't gotten there yet.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:17

But does this, like if you are a country where you have a non-state actor or you

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:20

have a rebel group or something like that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:22

Does this, even the balance of power in some meaningful way, like should now,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:26

like can a cartel or you know, a militant group in some country in the world,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:30

like take this playbook and strike the conventional capacity of the government

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:34

they're, that they're going against?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:26:35

Or am I reaching too far there?

Sim Tack: 00:26:40

Again, I think all the things that you're saying all are correct

Sim Tack: 00:26:43

except for that one little part.

Sim Tack: 00:26:45

The, this now.

Sim Tack: 00:26:47

Part, right.

Sim Tack: 00:26:48

Where mm-hmm.

Sim Tack: 00:26:49

I, I think all of this has been the case for over a decade.

Sim Tack: 00:26:53

We've, we've seen the use of these kind of drones emerge and, and grow and

Sim Tack: 00:26:57

become more professional over the course of the Syrian Civil War, uh, Islamic

Sim Tack: 00:27:03

state operations in both Syria and Iraq.

Sim Tack: 00:27:06

Um, and from there, it, it has panned out to the rest of the world.

Sim Tack: 00:27:10

Ukraine has been another.

Sim Tack: 00:27:12

Kind of big, um, uplift in, in the level of those capabilities.

Sim Tack: 00:27:18

Um, but we've also seen that kind of, uh, the, the adaptation of those same

Sim Tack: 00:27:23

kind of drones in places like Sudan, um, Mexico, as you mentioned, the cartels

Sim Tack: 00:27:31

using those kind of drones, I, I think that capability is, is well, well known

Sim Tack: 00:27:37

and, and being adopted by anyone that.

Sim Tack: 00:27:41

That is trying to grasp at any means they can to try and gain

Sim Tack: 00:27:44

advantage over their, uh, opponents.

Sim Tack: 00:27:47

And I think it's not even just an asymmetric warfare element where, um,

Sim Tack: 00:27:53

even conventional forces and, and you know, Ukraine being the big example of

Sim Tack: 00:27:57

that, even conventional forces order stronger actors in a conflict even want

Sim Tack: 00:28:02

to adopt these kind of technologies because they're just so damn effective.

Sim Tack: 00:28:07

Um, and in, in.

Sim Tack: 00:28:10

Mexico.

Sim Tack: 00:28:11

I think one of the reasons why we haven't seen them go after air bases or, or to

Sim Tack: 00:28:15

sink the, the Mexican Navy is because those, those assets simply aren't

Sim Tack: 00:28:20

what's troubling the cartels, right?

Sim Tack: 00:28:23

You want to focus your efforts against the things that you're, uh,

Sim Tack: 00:28:28

you're actually being troubled by.

Sim Tack: 00:28:30

Um, now I would say if, if, if we go all the way back to, um.

Sim Tack: 00:28:36

Uh, the Islamic State in, in Syria and Iraq.

Sim Tack: 00:28:40

Um, I remember them using drones to attack Syrian air assets, for example.

Sim Tack: 00:28:47

Um, of course Syria doesn't have nuclear bombers, but, um, still taking down.

Sim Tack: 00:28:54

Uh, attack helicopters, well, not taking down, but destroying attack

Sim Tack: 00:28:58

helicopters on the ground, destroying fighter aircraft on the ground.

Sim Tack: 00:29:01

That was a pretty big win for them.

Sim Tack: 00:29:03

Um, but I would also add to that, that I don't remember any incidents

Sim Tack: 00:29:08

where Islamic State was able to target coalition air bases in the same way.

Sim Tack: 00:29:14

Um, because obviously those, those coalition air bases were.

Sim Tack: 00:29:18

Much farther removed spatially from the battle space, um, had different levels

Sim Tack: 00:29:24

of security than the, the Syrian one.

Sim Tack: 00:29:27

So I, I think that's kind of the, um, the, uh, the struggle, uh, or, or I guess

Sim Tack: 00:29:33

the balancing that is happening, right?

Sim Tack: 00:29:35

Where on the one hand you have this capability, these groans, but it's also

Sim Tack: 00:29:38

limited in, uh, in range and access.

Sim Tack: 00:29:43

Um, and then you can actually set up security procedures against it.

Sim Tack: 00:29:47

There's also a lot of counter drone weaponry these days.

Sim Tack: 00:29:51

Um, some of it focusing on detecting these drones early.

Sim Tack: 00:29:55

Uh, some of it focusing on, um, disrupting the communications,

Sim Tack: 00:30:01

disrupting, uh, control of these drones.

Sim Tack: 00:30:04

Um, and that actually kind of.

Sim Tack: 00:30:08

Points to some of the interesting elements in that whole arms race as well.

Sim Tack: 00:30:12

Where in Ukraine you see evolutions towards the use of, um, uh, fiber

Sim Tack: 00:30:19

optic commanded drones, where, where the drones are actually leaving

Sim Tack: 00:30:23

a, a, a string of fiber optic that connects them to the controller.

Sim Tack: 00:30:27

Because then they can't be jammed or they're not detected by, uh,

Sim Tack: 00:30:31

by electronic warfare equipment.

Sim Tack: 00:30:33

Um, and then as we saw in the attack against the Russian air

Sim Tack: 00:30:37

bases, where allegedly these drones targeted the aircraft

Sim Tack: 00:30:41

purely based on, I. On AI training.

Sim Tack: 00:30:44

So they, they were, at least that's the story going around, that they were

Sim Tack: 00:30:48

trained on images of these bombers and kind of self targeted bombers that matched

Sim Tack: 00:30:54

the ones they were trained to target.

Sim Tack: 00:30:56

Um, which is, which is feasible for sure.

Sim Tack: 00:30:59

Um, but that dependence on AI is also way to cut off external

Sim Tack: 00:31:04

communications and, and dependencies.

Sim Tack: 00:31:06

It, it means that if, if everything, if your navigation you're targeting

Sim Tack: 00:31:10

is computed within the drone.

Sim Tack: 00:31:11

You don't have to rely on a radio signal in and out of the drone,

Sim Tack: 00:31:16

uh, to conduct your operation.

Sim Tack: 00:31:17

So again, that, that cuts off that potential line of defense in, in terms

Sim Tack: 00:31:22

of electronic detection or, or jamming.

Sim Tack: 00:31:25

Um, so I, I think it's a really fascinating, uh, a really fascinating

Sim Tack: 00:31:31

arms race because it's, it's a really.

Sim Tack: 00:31:34

It's, it's kind of niche technology going up against each other.

Sim Tack: 00:31:37

And that's why when we're talking about these potential future, uh,

Sim Tack: 00:31:42

scenarios where a US carrier group might face these kind of drone based

Sim Tack: 00:31:47

challenges, um, we also have to think about how, how is the US Navy

Sim Tack: 00:31:51

preparing for those kind of threats?

Sim Tack: 00:31:52

I, I would imagine they're very actively, uh, investing time and resources into.

Sim Tack: 00:31:58

Detecting those kind of drones, jamming, those kind of drones, kinetically,

Sim Tack: 00:32:03

taking out those kind of drones.

Sim Tack: 00:32:05

Um, so it, it's difficult to say just because they exist, they are a threat.

Sim Tack: 00:32:10

Right.

Sim Tack: 00:32:10

The, the counter threat

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:11

might also, I.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:12

Already have been developed.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:15

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:15

You sort of anticipated my next question, which is how do you

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:17

defend against these things?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:19

Like is there already gonna be technology that makes this advantage

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:22

mood, and is that the sort of technology that only, you know, someone with

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:25

an advanced conventional capability is going to to have, I mean, the.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:29

The flip side of this though is, I mean, this is where it does feel

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:32

asymmetric and here the example of Israel, you know, we're always gonna

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:36

come back, I think, to examples of Israel, Yemen, Ukraine, Russia.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:39

'cause this is where war is happening.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:41

Um, but, you know, uh, iron Dome and Israel's missile defense system, you

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:45

know, developed in, in cooperation with the United States, incredible,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:48

like an incredible success rates, but also like extremely expensive.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:52

Like the Iranians showed this, where they can, you know, pop off relatively

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:55

cheap Rockets exhaust the supply of the.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:32:59

The missile defense system and then, okay, like eventually you're

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:02

gonna run out of money and you're gonna run out of the counters.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:04

Um, so I dunno, maybe somebody will invent some type of technology.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:08

Maybe you can like send out an EMP pulse or something in one direction.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:11

Like now we're getting really science fiction oriented.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:13

But like, is is there a way to defend against these things like it, or are

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:17

we gonna see a whole industry of how to defend against drones in general?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:21

Um, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:22

Take that however you want.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:23

Great.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:23

That, that industry already

Sim Tack: 00:33:25

exists and it's, it's definitely.

Sim Tack: 00:33:26

Pumping out revenue.

Sim Tack: 00:33:28

Um, but it's

Jacob Shapiro: 00:33:30

a pumping out product though.

Sim Tack: 00:33:32

Well, yes.

Sim Tack: 00:33:33

Yeah.

Sim Tack: 00:33:34

I, I, I think it is.

Sim Tack: 00:33:34

But there's also a lot of solutions that are not necessarily entirely

Sim Tack: 00:33:39

focused on this new threat.

Sim Tack: 00:33:40

So you, you have these companies, uh, pushing these anti drone guns, right?

Sim Tack: 00:33:45

Like the ray, the futuristic looking ray guns that you aim at the drone,

Sim Tack: 00:33:49

and, and it gives a very concentrated deem to jam the signal effectively.

Sim Tack: 00:33:54

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:33:55

But let's, let's not forget that, you know, the, the whole

Sim Tack: 00:33:58

electronic spectrum of warfare is, is not exactly something new.

Sim Tack: 00:34:01

That's, that's something that's been going on since the sixties, seventies when, uh,

Sim Tack: 00:34:06

um, when the use of various kinds of, uh, radars and jamming and, and restaurant,

Sim Tack: 00:34:16

all of those things has, has only grown.

Sim Tack: 00:34:19

Um, so.

Sim Tack: 00:34:22

You know, kind of as an example of that, one of the things that Ukraine has also

Sim Tack: 00:34:26

been doing to, um, to save on kinetic interceptions, um, 'cause as you mentioned

Sim Tack: 00:34:33

with Iron Dome, that's one of the reasons that the system is so damn expensive.

Sim Tack: 00:34:36

'cause those interceptors are one use by definition or single use.

Sim Tack: 00:34:41

Um, so.

Sim Tack: 00:34:43

One of the things that Ukraine has been doing is using the F sixteens,

Sim Tack: 00:34:47

um, that it got from, from European partners, um, to jam the Iranian shaha

Sim Tack: 00:34:53

drones that Russia fires at them.

Sim Tack: 00:34:55

So instead of kinetically targeting, they, they will target some of them

Sim Tack: 00:35:00

kinetically, obviously they, they, there's a lot of them to take down, but

Sim Tack: 00:35:04

they also use the electronic warfare equipment on the F 16 to jam it so

Sim Tack: 00:35:09

that the drone, you know, either.

Sim Tack: 00:35:12

Loses its navigation goes down or turns back or, or whatever they do based

Sim Tack: 00:35:17

on, on how exactly they're affected.

Sim Tack: 00:35:19

Um, so that's, that's another way that you can kind of limit the resources.

Sim Tack: 00:35:26

'cause, you know, electronic warfare is, is relatively cheap in

Sim Tack: 00:35:30

the sense that it doesn't require.

Sim Tack: 00:35:32

Ammunition, right?

Sim Tack: 00:35:33

It, it requires powering.

Sim Tack: 00:35:34

Of course, you need to acquire these systems and the systems themselves

Sim Tack: 00:35:38

surely aren't cheap, but, um, but there's no big logistical train

Sim Tack: 00:35:43

for the production of, of advanced missiles and, and things like that.

Sim Tack: 00:35:47

So, um, so I think that's why, why we're seeing a lot of focus on

Sim Tack: 00:35:50

that, um, on that electronic jamming component of, of fighting drone threats.

Sim Tack: 00:35:57

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:35:58

But of course there's, there's a lot of ways that, that the drones themselves are

Sim Tack: 00:36:02

being hardened against electronic warfare.

Sim Tack: 00:36:06

And, you know, I, I mentioned the, the fiber optics, which of

Sim Tack: 00:36:10

course is still limited in range.

Sim Tack: 00:36:11

You can only carry so heavy, a spool of, of fiber optics.

Sim Tack: 00:36:16

Um, and, and that'll only have a limited, uh, length that you can achieve.

Sim Tack: 00:36:21

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:36:23

The AI systems might, you know, not have that range restriction.

Sim Tack: 00:36:28

But then at the end of the day, you know, how, how complex of an

Sim Tack: 00:36:32

operation can you conduct purely on.

Sim Tack: 00:36:35

Like pre-program, pre-trained behavior, uh, without risking, you know,

Sim Tack: 00:36:40

either mission failure or collateral damage and, and things like that.

Sim Tack: 00:36:43

So there's, there's these, these pretty big trade-offs.

Sim Tack: 00:36:47

Um, I think one of the other things that we don't see a lot about today,

Sim Tack: 00:36:51

I'm, I'm sure it is being experimented with and a lot of these war zones, but.

Sim Tack: 00:36:57

Um, and another way to combat that kind of jamming is, is directional communications,

Sim Tack: 00:37:03

um, using lasers or, or antennas that are very specific about where they, they're

Sim Tack: 00:37:09

able to receive signal from so that it's, you know, any signal that comes in

Sim Tack: 00:37:12

from other directions is shielded out.

Sim Tack: 00:37:15

Um, so there's, there's a lot of things going on there, and I'm, I'm not sure.

Sim Tack: 00:37:21

Whether we can make a guess about like, you know, which, which side will win out.

Sim Tack: 00:37:25

Will it be, you know, the drone threat cannot be tamed or the

Sim Tack: 00:37:29

defenses will be so effective that it becomes completely irrelevant?

Sim Tack: 00:37:34

Um, I, I think right now we're in that phase where everybody is so actively

Sim Tack: 00:37:39

exploring it and, and pushing it as far as they can, that the two are, are

Sim Tack: 00:37:43

kind of constantly in balance, right.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:37:47

Yeah, absolutely.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:37:49

Um, and to all these things, there's a balance.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:37:50

Um, alright, well let's, let's talk a little bit more specifically

Jacob Shapiro: 00:37:53

about, um, Russia, Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:37:55

Um, I, um, I take your point about, um, you know, is this gonna lead to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:37:59

the attack of US strategic bombers?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:01

Probably not.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:02

Is this gonna de deter Russia's nuclear deterrent or, uh, limit Russia's nuclear?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:06

Uh, excuse me.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:07

Is this going to limit Russia's ability to have a nuclear deterrent

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:10

or to have nuclear strike capability?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:11

No, I thought that was pretty sensational.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:15

Uh, I think specific question, and the one I don't have clarity on is,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:18

does this meaningfully impact the operations of the Russian Air Force?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:21

Does this mean that the Russian Air Force is going to be less capable of attacking

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:25

or bombing Ukraine in the future?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:27

Are the security checks and protocols that Russia's gonna have to put in to protect

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:31

from Ukraine, is that going to create.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:32

You know, supply chain havoc, or is that gonna limit the capacity of Russian

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:36

air power to respond to future attacks?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:39

Uh, can Ukraine spoof a bunch of attacks in the future?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:41

Just send shit across the border and like see if they can spin

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:44

things up and make them constantly guessing about what's going on.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:46

So, um, I, I, I take your points on the bigger ones, but is there a, is

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:50

there a tangible impact on Russian air power in, in any way, whether that's

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:53

capacity to do bombing runs or how they think about future operations?

Sim Tack: 00:38:58

So, yeah, there's definitely an impact and I, I don't think the impacts

Sim Tack: 00:39:02

necessarily in, in terms of the collective capacity that Russia can muster, but it's,

Sim Tack: 00:39:10

um, it's imposing a lot of additional, uh, tail to, to these operations.

Sim Tack: 00:39:17

Um, by, by tail I mean like the, the, the force protection element of, of.

Sim Tack: 00:39:24

Uh, of their air operation.

Sim Tack: 00:39:26

So one part of that, as you mentioned, you know, they'll, they'll have

Sim Tack: 00:39:28

to contribute more resources to, um, to securing those airfields.

Sim Tack: 00:39:33

Even though they're far away from Ukraine, Russia cannot

Sim Tack: 00:39:36

afford to leave them unprotected.

Sim Tack: 00:39:38

Um, and that's, um, you know, that's, that's another.

Sim Tack: 00:39:43

Field of activity where they cannot just draw people away and push them

Sim Tack: 00:39:46

to the front in Ukraine, that it means you're actually gonna have to have

Sim Tack: 00:39:49

people there to protect the air bases.

Sim Tack: 00:39:51

Um, in addition to that, um, something that's already been happening, uh,

Sim Tack: 00:39:58

because of other attacks against Russian air assets, um, not, not so much the,

Sim Tack: 00:40:03

the big heavy bombers, but against, uh, airfields closer to the front line, um, is

Sim Tack: 00:40:09

that Russia has been forced to disperse.

Sim Tack: 00:40:12

It's air assets, right?

Sim Tack: 00:40:14

So, um, the less aircraft you keep at one single base, the more you spread

Sim Tack: 00:40:19

them out, the more difficult you make it for Ukraine to, uh, to destroy a

Sim Tack: 00:40:24

lot of aircraft in a single attack.

Sim Tack: 00:40:27

Um, so, and, and actually Russia has already been doing that with

Sim Tack: 00:40:31

their strategic bomber fleet.

Sim Tack: 00:40:33

For quite some time during the Ukraine conflict.

Sim Tack: 00:40:36

'cause there have been other attempts in the past to target them, um, like

Sim Tack: 00:40:39

at Angles Airbase, where they've launched the, the long range drones

Sim Tack: 00:40:43

to, uh, to target, uh, the air base.

Sim Tack: 00:40:46

Um, so they're constantly trying to play a game of cups where they're, they're

Sim Tack: 00:40:50

moving, they're moving their bombers around, they're moving their fighter

Sim Tack: 00:40:54

aircraft around to try and, um, you know, make, make it as difficult as

Sim Tack: 00:40:58

possible for Ukraine to, to target them.

Sim Tack: 00:41:02

But at the same time, that is, that is raising a cost on Russia's behalf, right?

Sim Tack: 00:41:07

Because on the one hand, your, your flight crews are constantly adapting to new

Sim Tack: 00:41:13

locations that they're operating from.

Sim Tack: 00:41:16

Um, the logistics, uh, uh, support for all of those operations

Sim Tack: 00:41:21

has to constantly be rerouted.

Sim Tack: 00:41:23

Uh, you know, so after the attacks, uh, against the Russian

Sim Tack: 00:41:26

airfields, uh, one of the first things that we saw appearing were.

Sim Tack: 00:41:31

Aircraft to transport equipment and personnel out of these bases to other

Sim Tack: 00:41:35

bases where they will now be basing some of these, uh, these bombers.

Sim Tack: 00:41:39

Uh, but all of those constant air bridges inside Russia, those are

Sim Tack: 00:41:43

also taking a toll, uh, a toll on, on Russia's capabilities.

Sim Tack: 00:41:47

'cause the, um, you know, there's the cost of the operations themselves and, and fuel

Sim Tack: 00:41:52

man hours, however you want to express it.

Sim Tack: 00:41:55

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:41:56

But the, the increased level of operations, the increased tempo of these

Sim Tack: 00:42:01

kind of flights also means that there is a higher, uh, potential for accidents.

Sim Tack: 00:42:07

Um, uh, Russia tends to not have the best reputation when it comes to, uh, aviation

Sim Tack: 00:42:13

safety and any kind of additional stress, additional flights that are required.

Sim Tack: 00:42:19

That, that only increases the, the potential of, of Russian aircraft going

Sim Tack: 00:42:23

down without Ukrainian intervention.

Sim Tack: 00:42:26

Um, so, you know, those are just a, a couple like, you know, examples that I,

Sim Tack: 00:42:31

that I'm pulling out, but in general, like yes, these kind of attacks, they, they

Sim Tack: 00:42:36

are putting a constant force protection, uh, stress on the Russian military.

Sim Tack: 00:42:43

And RAHA can decide to deal with that in two ways.

Sim Tack: 00:42:46

They can either.

Sim Tack: 00:42:47

Either commit to that and, and that means there's less resources that they could

Sim Tack: 00:42:52

otherwise have pushed to the frontline, or they can decide to ignore it and

Sim Tack: 00:42:58

prioritize that frontline, but then.

Sim Tack: 00:43:00

You know, essentially expose some of their more strategic assets

Sim Tack: 00:43:04

to, to those kind of threats.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:06

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:07

Which gets to the question of, and this is like always the question when

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:10

it comes to the thing, uh, when it comes to these things, why did Ukraine

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:13

you think, decide to do this Now?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:15

They've been planning this for 18 months, they said, um, the situation does not

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:20

correct me if I'm wrong, does not appear to be going so well on the battlefield.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:24

Um, they're getting pre, you know, they're.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:26

Yes, they have Europe more in their corner, but, you know, the United States

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:30

is not what it was even, you know, six, eight months ago in terms of support.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:33

Like Trump is very, very different than Biden.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:35

So the diplomatic picture looks a lot more complicated.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:38

Um, like I, I take your point that they're gonna put pressure on, on Russia,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:42

but they're also are putting pressure on Russia to respond in a way that is

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:46

extremely meaningful, which might open up a whole Pandora's box there too.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:50

So, should we see this as a sign of Ukrainian strength?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:53

Do you think that they saw some sort of political moment where now is a time that

Jacob Shapiro: 00:43:57

if they did this, they could push towards negotiations from a favorable position?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:01

Should we read it as Ukrainian weakness, as a sign of desperation that they're

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:05

losing things on the front lines and they felt the need to push back or.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:08

Punch back in any sort of way to either prove to themselves or to their allies

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:11

that they could continue forward.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:13

How, how do you evaluate the timing or the answer also could just be because

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:16

they could, like they wanted to do it.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:18

So like if you're fighting war, like you pull the levers, it's

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:21

not so strategic all the time.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:22

But what do you think about the timing of this?

Sim Tack: 00:44:26

I think it's very difficult to make, to draw conclusions from the timing.

Sim Tack: 00:44:30

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:44:32

There, there are so many different factors that could be at play here.

Sim Tack: 00:44:35

One, one of them is simply, you know, that preparation for that operation.

Sim Tack: 00:44:39

Were they, were they just ready And they launched it as soon as they could

Sim Tack: 00:44:44

before potentially being discovered?

Sim Tack: 00:44:47

Um, was there a risk of discovery and did they prematurely launch

Sim Tack: 00:44:51

it before everything, uh, went completely out the window?

Sim Tack: 00:44:55

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:44:57

Or you know, as, as you mentioned, was there some kind of political

Sim Tack: 00:45:00

initiative where it's like, Hey, this operation's been.

Sim Tack: 00:45:04

On the books, it's ready to go.

Sim Tack: 00:45:06

Now's a good time.

Sim Tack: 00:45:07

I, I have no idea.

Sim Tack: 00:45:08

And I, I, I don't think I could in, in, in any kind of useful way speculate about it.

Sim Tack: 00:45:14

Um,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:15

but I think then, then, then spec, then speculate

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:17

about it in a non-useful way.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:19

That's, that's also good too for me.

Sim Tack: 00:45:21

Well, let, let try to pull it in, in, in a, in a, maybe

Sim Tack: 00:45:24

in another useful direction, which is in, instead of trying to think

Sim Tack: 00:45:28

about the, the intent of the timing.

Sim Tack: 00:45:30

We, we can talk about the impact of the timing, right?

Sim Tack: 00:45:33

Where, um, like as, as you mentioned, the conflict in Ukraine itself has kind of

Sim Tack: 00:45:39

stagnated a lot of people losing interest.

Sim Tack: 00:45:42

Um, Ukraine has that u European support, but I think one of the big things

Sim Tack: 00:45:47

about that U European support is that we've seen it also kind of evolve

Sim Tack: 00:45:52

to, to want to align with Trump's.

Sim Tack: 00:45:56

Uh, ambitions when it comes to Ukraine.

Sim Tack: 00:45:58

So, mm-hmm.

Sim Tack: 00:45:59

I feel like a lot of the conversations between Europe and Ukraine have started

Sim Tack: 00:46:05

to be about, uh, security guarantees once that hypothetical ceasefire is in action.

Sim Tack: 00:46:13

Um, there are of course still discussions going on about supporting Ukraine

Sim Tack: 00:46:17

and, and, and actions going on to support Ukraine during the actual

Sim Tack: 00:46:21

fighting short of such a ceasefire.

Sim Tack: 00:46:24

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:46:25

There's no real big qualitative shifts in that.

Sim Tack: 00:46:28

Um, I mean, there is the discussion with Germany about unleashing the,

Sim Tack: 00:46:33

the Taurus missiles, uh, which would give Ukraine another, um, you know,

Sim Tack: 00:46:39

long range precision weapon that, that they can launch into Russia.

Sim Tack: 00:46:43

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:46:44

But I also don't think that that's really going to turn the tide of

Sim Tack: 00:46:47

the war or anything like that.

Sim Tack: 00:46:49

The reality is that the war has evolved to a point where the lines

Sim Tack: 00:46:53

on the ground are very static.

Sim Tack: 00:46:56

Russia continues to push a lot of resources into the frontline,

Sim Tack: 00:47:00

and they continue to make gains, um, but in a positive sense.

Sim Tack: 00:47:04

And I, I think we've talked about that in, in previous, um,

Sim Tack: 00:47:08

in previous podcasts where, uh.

Sim Tack: 00:47:12

Russia kept advancing, but Ukraine was kind of, um, not doing its due

Sim Tack: 00:47:17

diligence in, in setting up additional defensive lines behind their current

Sim Tack: 00:47:22

positions, which caused them to, you know, quickly have to give up

Sim Tack: 00:47:26

terrain and then not necessarily do any better after withdrawing.

Sim Tack: 00:47:29

So that's something that we've seen change.

Sim Tack: 00:47:31

So since the beginning of this year.

Sim Tack: 00:47:33

Um, around February, March, we've seen some really impressive defensive

Sim Tack: 00:47:38

preparations behind the front lines on the Ukrainian side, um, which I think also

Sim Tack: 00:47:44

signals Ukraine's current position, right?

Sim Tack: 00:47:47

Dealing with Trump, with Europe.

Sim Tack: 00:47:49

Everybody's talking about the cease spire.

Sim Tack: 00:47:51

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:47:53

I think they're also being realistic and understanding like, hey, we're,

Sim Tack: 00:47:57

we're not gonna get into a position where we get the level of support that

Sim Tack: 00:48:01

allows us to quickly break through and take all this territory back.

Sim Tack: 00:48:05

Um, but if they can stabilize the frontline, if they can achieve some

Sim Tack: 00:48:10

kind of ceasefire, and if Europe and us come through with all the security

Sim Tack: 00:48:15

guarantees that they've been talking about, I think that's a, that's a

Sim Tack: 00:48:19

scenario that Ukraine is more and more.

Sim Tack: 00:48:22

Um, uh, looking more and more positively at, um, and then they're

Sim Tack: 00:48:27

putting the preparations in place by, by creating those defenses.

Sim Tack: 00:48:31

Um, meanwhile on, on the Russian end of things, even though, you know, Russia

Sim Tack: 00:48:37

continues to gain gain ground slowly but surely, um, they are still paying.

Sim Tack: 00:48:43

Heavy prices.

Sim Tack: 00:48:45

Um, they, you know, we've seen the impact on, on the Russian economy over time,

Sim Tack: 00:48:50

which has not really gotten better.

Sim Tack: 00:48:53

Um, we've seen, you know, Russia trying to replace some of the arms production

Sim Tack: 00:49:00

with supplies from North Korea.

Sim Tack: 00:49:03

Which hasn't really helped.

Sim Tack: 00:49:04

We've seen them bringing in North Korean troops.

Sim Tack: 00:49:06

I, I think that happened after we last spoke, or, or maybe around

Sim Tack: 00:49:10

the time we last spoke, I forgot.

Sim Tack: 00:49:11

But, um, you know, those came and went and that hasn't really made a big difference.

Sim Tack: 00:49:16

Um, so Russia is trying to really muster all it can to keep the war going.

Sim Tack: 00:49:22

They're not in a position right now where they want to accept

Sim Tack: 00:49:25

a ceasefire in these positions.

Sim Tack: 00:49:28

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:49:30

Because obviously they, they still want to try and, and use the current

Sim Tack: 00:49:34

advances they're making to, to bully Ukraine and or the West into, um,

Sim Tack: 00:49:41

achieving a higher political goal.

Sim Tack: 00:49:43

You know, I. Kind of like what they started the war for, but

Sim Tack: 00:49:47

never realistically could achieve.

Sim Tack: 00:49:49

Mm-hmm.

Sim Tack: 00:49:50

Um, so anyway, in, in that entire situation that, that's

Sim Tack: 00:49:53

kind of a long-winded sketch of, of the current situation.

Sim Tack: 00:49:57

But if, if you're looking at that situation and then you see this

Sim Tack: 00:50:00

attack occurring, um, against the, the Russian strategic barber fleet, um,

Sim Tack: 00:50:08

that's one of those elements where.

Sim Tack: 00:50:10

Ukraine can still have an impact beyond simply digging in on the

Sim Tack: 00:50:14

frontline, and that at the very least has a big visual impact on Russia.

Sim Tack: 00:50:22

Um, so it's another one of those stressor I. Events that, that put

Sim Tack: 00:50:26

stress internally in Russia on the government because the, the appearance

Sim Tack: 00:50:31

of, you know, the government is messing up the approach to this conflict.

Sim Tack: 00:50:35

We're gonna waste our, our nuclear deterrent over this

Sim Tack: 00:50:38

little patch of land in Ukraine.

Sim Tack: 00:50:40

Um, all of those ideas, um, start to put stress on, on

Sim Tack: 00:50:44

the, on the Russian government.

Sim Tack: 00:50:46

Um, of course this, this is a limited amount of stress compared to.

Sim Tack: 00:50:50

The whole full spectrum of, of stress that they're under.

Sim Tack: 00:50:54

Um, but I think that's, that's where I would kind of place this operation.

Sim Tack: 00:50:58

It's, it's one of those, one of those things where Ukraine can still

Sim Tack: 00:51:02

reach out and try to have a visible impact on Russian regime stability.

Sim Tack: 00:51:07

Um, and, and I think they'll continue to try and do those kind of things.

Sim Tack: 00:51:11

It, it probably won't be the same type of operation, probably

Sim Tack: 00:51:15

not the same type of target.

Sim Tack: 00:51:18

Um.

Sim Tack: 00:51:19

But that's, that's probably one of the, one of the big tools that they have.

Sim Tack: 00:51:24

Uh, without capabilities to actually reshape the, the

Sim Tack: 00:51:27

battlefield on the ground.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:30

I'm not sure whether all this makes me feel better or worse, sim,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:32

but I definitely feel like I know more.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:34

And that is the point of all of this at the very end.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:36

So I could talk to you for another hour, but unfortunately,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:38

um, I have to wrap it here.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:40

Um, but I. We will not wait another six months to have you back on.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:43

We'll have you on extremely soon, I think, because, I mean, I didn't even get to ask

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:47

you how the heck the Houthis like made problems for the F 30 fives because I've

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:50

read the Wall Street Journal reporting and all of it just doesn't make sense to me.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:52

But let's not open that can of worms right now.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:54

We'll leave the listeners wanting more.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:56

Thanks for making the time.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:57

And it looks like, uh, I mean, listeners, you can't see this, but

Jacob Shapiro: 00:51:59

there's a very nice collection of liquor behind, uh, behind your left.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:02

Looks like you're primed for a good weekend.

Sim Tack: 00:52:06

Uh, yeah.

Sim Tack: 00:52:06

Well, I'm, I'm, I'm hoping it lasts slaughtered on the weekend though.

Sim Tack: 00:52:09

Oh, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:10

Yeah.

Sim Tack: 00:52:10

You only love once.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:16

Thank you so much for listening to the Jacob Shapiro podcast.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:19

Uh, the show is produced and edited by Jacob Mian, and it's

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:23

in, in many ways, the Jacob Show.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:25

Um, if you enjoyed today's episode, please don't forget to subscribe.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:28

Rate or leave a review, it takes just a couple seconds of your time, but it

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:31

really helps us also share with a friend.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:33

If you're interested in learning more about hiring me to speak at your

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:37

event, or if you wanna learn more about the wealth management services

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:40

that uh, I offer through bespoke or at cognitive investments, you can find

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:44

more information@jacobshapiro.com.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:46

You can also write to me directly at jacob@jacobshapiro.com.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:51

I'm also on, on X for now with the handle.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:53

Jacob Shap.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:54

That's Jacob.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:54

SHAP.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:55

No DATs dashes or anything else, but I'm not hard to find.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:52:59

Um, see you out there.