Episode 287

Israel Strikes Iran P2: Analyst Kamran Bokhari

Jacob Shapiro is joined by Middle East expert Kamran Bokhari to analyze the rapidly unfolding Israeli military strikes on Iran. They discuss the strategic implications of Israel’s targeted attacks on IRGC leadership, the potential for regime instability in Tehran, and the calculus behind Washington’s response. Bokhari introduces the concept of “evolutionary regime change” and outlines scenarios ranging from internal coups to regional realignment. Together, they explore whether Israel’s aim is nuclear deterrence or regime collapse, and what options remain for an Iranian response. It’s a fast-moving, high-stakes conversation on Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(02:09) - Initial Reactions to Recent Events

(04:21) - Analyzing Israel's Strategy

(08:11) - Potential Outcomes and Scenarios

(27:01) - Regional Reactions and Implications

(32:08) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis:

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Transcript
Jacob Shapiro:

Hello listeners.

Jacob Shapiro:

Welcome to an emergency episode of Geopolitical Cousins Marco and

Jacob Shapiro:

I drop everything to talk about the burgeoning Israel Iran War.

Jacob Shapiro:

You can write to me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com if you

Jacob Shapiro:

want to get to me and Marco with any thoughts or anything else.

Jacob Shapiro:

Otherwise, uh, as you can tell by how fast I'm talking, I should slow down.

Jacob Shapiro:

I've had a lot of coffee and there's lots to do today.

Jacob Shapiro:

Take care of yourselves.

Jacob Shapiro:

We will see you out there.

Marko Papic:

I dunno how much time you have, but I have a full two.

Marko Papic:

I

Jacob Shapiro:

I've got one, but, um, okay,

Marko Papic:

let's crush it Deb.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's crush it.

Jacob Shapiro:

We are live.

Jacob Shapiro:

Go for it.

Marko Papic:

Alright, Jacob, we gotta talk about, um, a serious situation that I am

Marko Papic:

afraid we didn't really hit on right away.

Marko Papic:

The Holly button has struck again, I. And we now all expect

Marko Papic:

Oklahoma City thunder to retaliate.

Marko Papic:

And we have to see what that looks like.

Jacob Shapiro:

Marco, this is why we're cousins.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I literally was thinking of introing the same way and guys, Marco

Jacob Shapiro:

was so excited, he was like, no, no, I wanna do the intro this time.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you did it so you could do that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Joking.

Jacob Shapiro:

I was gonna do that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes, we are.

Jacob Shapiro:

The pacers are up to one.

Jacob Shapiro:

What asymmetric means are the thunder going to use now that Yeah, I'm, I'm

Marko Papic:

totally none.

Marko Papic:

I mean, they're conventional, right?

Marko Papic:

It's the asymmetry that's winning anyways.

Marko Papic:

Okay, so we're here.

Marko Papic:

Emergency pod obviously because uh, Israel has struck Iran.

Marko Papic:

Uh, they have struck Iran's nuclear site to.

Marko Papic:

In singular sites.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sites?

Jacob Shapiro:

No, no, no.

Jacob Shapiro:

They, they also, it's not clear how much damage they did at four Dough,

Jacob Shapiro:

but it looks like four dough also, uh, incurred some damage as well.

Marko Papic:

That's interesting.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, more than just Naans, naans appears to be, uh, the one

Marko Papic:

that will strike like heavily but

Jacob Shapiro:

heavily.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

We at least have video of smoke.

Jacob Shapiro:

We should say to the listeners, like, this is, it's Friday,

Jacob Shapiro:

June 13th, 10:04 AM Central.

Jacob Shapiro:

What is, is it 8:00 AM Pacific?

Jacob Shapiro:

It's 8:00 AM.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, we're gonna push, we're gonna push this out as quickly as we

Jacob Shapiro:

can, but this is the fog of war, so all the initial reporting will

Jacob Shapiro:

probably turn out to be wrong.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and some of the things that we talk about may even be overtaken

Jacob Shapiro:

by events, like by the time that you're listening to this.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like, take everything with a grain of salt.

Jacob Shapiro:

The hardest part of doing analysis at this part of, in this cycle of

Jacob Shapiro:

a, of a, of an attack like this is we don't even know what we know.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, so, but yeah, we'll try and parse through it.

Marko Papic:

That's true.

Marko Papic:

And I obviously agree with everything you say, but, uh, I do sometimes feel

Marko Papic:

that my first gut reaction is the best.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, no, I think there's something to be said for, um, I mean, I

Jacob Shapiro:

find gut and instinct is really important an an important tool in an analyst's, um,

Marko Papic:

tool.

Marko Papic:

Well, I think you know what it is.

Marko Papic:

I think because as, as the situation develops, oftentimes the two sides have

Marko Papic:

an interest in, uh, flagging that they could deviate from their constraints.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

That they, that they can do more than what you would've thought

Marko Papic:

at the onset of the crisis.

Marko Papic:

But the truth is that they can't, you know, and that's why sometimes day

Marko Papic:

one analysis is better than day five.

Marko Papic:

Obviously, day 30 is gonna be better.

Marko Papic:

I, I, I don't, I don't disagree with that.

Marko Papic:

But the difference between day one analysis and day five analysis

Marko Papic:

is often very, very profound.

Marko Papic:

And it's because over the next five days, you're likely to have

Marko Papic:

your fate in your framework shaken.

Marko Papic:

Think about April 2nd, reciprocal tariffs.

Marko Papic:

What happened over the course of the next five days?

Marko Papic:

I mean, most people said no.

Marko Papic:

I mean, they're serious.

Marko Papic:

They're not gonna negotiate.

Marko Papic:

Look, Peter Navarro's on TV is saying they're not.

Marko Papic:

That's because both sides at this point right now, Israel, Iran, us,

Marko Papic:

everybody has an interest in, um, fronting in saying, hold me back.

Marko Papic:

You know, I got more than you think I have.

Marko Papic:

Anyways, uh, sorry to interrupt on that, but like, let's, let's go

Marko Papic:

over everything that's happened.

Marko Papic:

So, um, yeah, there's reports that Israel used, actually a ground incursion.

Marko Papic:

There's reports that there were, uh, actually some Israeli commanders commandos

Marko Papic:

that they have might have taken some of the scientists, uh, from what I

Marko Papic:

understand, there's two, uh, very high ranking military officials in Iran.

Marko Papic:

They have been targeted for assassination.

Marko Papic:

Uh, several, uh, Iranian military bases were struck.

Marko Papic:

Um, multiple strikes in Tehran.

Marko Papic:

I'm not clear what, other than of course, some of the residential areas where, uh,

Marko Papic:

officials were living like scientists and, and, and military policymakers and so on.

Marko Papic:

Naans, Fordo, not the bushy hair and nuclear power plant

Marko Papic:

from what I understand.

Marko Papic:

Um, of course that one is legitimately for civilian use, although everything is

Marko Papic:

of course part of the nuclear program.

Marko Papic:

Um, I dunno, am I missing anything else on Israel's?

Marko Papic:

Oh yeah.

Marko Papic:

200 fighter jets were involved.

Marko Papic:

Doesn't seem that refueling, uh, planes were involved, but they probably were, I

Marko Papic:

think, uh, US has delivered one to Israel.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, there's a, there's a lot unclear about that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, well, so a couple things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, the first is, um, so we have some confirmed deaths this morning.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Mohammed, I'm gonna, I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

not a Farsi speaker, I'm an a I'm an Arabic speaker, so I apologize for

Jacob Shapiro:

butchering these names, but Major General B Bhe, I think is his name.

Jacob Shapiro:

Then you've got General Hussein Salami, not Soleimani Salami, who is the

Jacob Shapiro:

new commander in chief of the IRGC.

Jacob Shapiro:

He is gone.

Jacob Shapiro:

Then you've got a Deputy Commander of the Armed Forces, um, a head of the airspace

Jacob Shapiro:

unit of the IRGC taken out, um, one, at least one politician has been taken out.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, Ali Shahani, who is an influential Iranian politician.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's a close confidant of the Supreme leader.

Jacob Shapiro:

He was overseeing the nuclear talks with the United States, which is kind

Jacob Shapiro:

of crazy when you think about it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like not just an assault on Iran, but an an assault on the nuclear deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the negotiations itself on, on

Marko Papic:

diplomacy itself.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know, and like some nuclear scientists taken out as well,

Jacob Shapiro:

there has been some video on social media of Israeli refueling airplanes.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's not clear whether they're legit, it's not clear whether it's

Jacob Shapiro:

over Iranian airspace or over Syrian airspace or over Iraqi airspace.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, Marco, I dunno if you remember Sim Tac though.

Jacob Shapiro:

He was on my podcast a couple weeks ago and he talked about how when Assad fell,

Jacob Shapiro:

one of the things Israel did was it very quietly bombed the shit out of Syrian air

Jacob Shapiro:

defense so that Syria skies are basically open to Israel if it wants them to be.

Jacob Shapiro:

So part of me is thinking maybe what made this a little more realistic than

Jacob Shapiro:

even I would've given Israel credit for, is maybe they're able to refuel

Jacob Shapiro:

over Syria or maybe they're less worried about incurring things over Syria.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and then the other, the other part that I would, um, add to your summary

Jacob Shapiro:

of what happened is the sort of.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I, I don't wanna say strange, but the US role in all of this, because the

Jacob Shapiro:

initial response last night when you and I were texting was from Marco Rubio.

Jacob Shapiro:

That was basically Israel took unilateral action.

Jacob Shapiro:

We are not involved with this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Iran should not attack us.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then you wake up to Trump on truth socials saying, I gave Iran a chance.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, they could still make a deal if they want, but there's more

Jacob Shapiro:

coming and Israel is like gonna, you know, basically destroy them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and then you had Axios Wall Street Journal reporting this

Jacob Shapiro:

morning that, that not only.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, is, is the United States okay with this, but that the United States

Jacob Shapiro:

knew and that the United States participated in the deception to lull

Jacob Shapiro:

Iran into a false sense of security by telling them it's not gonna happen.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's gonna be more time here.

Jacob Shapiro:

United States is not for this.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know quite how to run that down.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I think you're also right to point out that, um, there are multiple Israeli

Jacob Shapiro:

security sources that are talking about the Mossad being on the ground in Iran in

Jacob Shapiro:

much the same way that Ukraine was on the ground in Russia with their big attack.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, you know, precision guided.

Jacob Shapiro:

Weapons located next to Iranians, surface to air missile systems, um,

Jacob Shapiro:

drones, uh, actual commando units going after scientists, things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and I think part of that, there, there's two parts of that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Number one, and I, I was just talking to an Iranian security

Jacob Shapiro:

expert for, for my other podcast.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, it's a sophisticated social media and publicity campaign too, because Israel

Jacob Shapiro:

is all over Persian social media, putting out things about how this is an assault

Jacob Shapiro:

on the regime, not on the Iranian people.

Jacob Shapiro:

That the, the Iranian regime has been attacking you.

Jacob Shapiro:

Israel is attacking this and sort of sowing those seeds of doubt.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but yeah, obviously a huge intelligence operation that

Jacob Shapiro:

had to come forward there too.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then the last thing I would just add to the summary, and I'm curious,

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, I'm curious for your takes on all of this, um, uh, Marco,

Jacob Shapiro:

but in some ways, one of the most.

Jacob Shapiro:

Blunt statements about what Israel has done thus far.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause if you like the French, I dunno if you saw Macron's statement,

Jacob Shapiro:

he was like, we condemn Iran and its nuclear program, like relatively softy

Jacob Shapiro:

from some of these other countries.

Jacob Shapiro:

But Saudi Arabia, I will quote, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's, ministry

Jacob Shapiro:

of Foreign Affairs expresses its strong condemnation in denunciation of

Jacob Shapiro:

blatant Israeli aggression against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran,

Jacob Shapiro:

which undermines sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation,

Jacob Shapiro:

right, of international law and norms.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the Saudis that's at least rhetorically, like slapping the

Jacob Shapiro:

Israelis on the wrist, maybe behind the scenes Mohammad bin Salman, is like

Jacob Shapiro:

popping the champagne on the yacht.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know, but, uh, yeah, that, that's at least my list of things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Also, to add to what you said,

Marko Papic:

well we should probably start with the last one.

Marko Papic:

I know that our listeners might think that's bizarre, uh, to start with

Marko Papic:

the Saudi statement, but the Saudi statement is the most important one.

Marko Papic:

I mean, if you're listening to this and wondering what's gonna happen

Marko Papic:

to your retirement, what's gonna happen to the global economy, it's

Marko Papic:

really the Saudi Iran relationship that matters more than anything.

Marko Papic:

I've said many times.

Marko Papic:

Um, by the way, I think our second podcast was about this.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

It was about war in Iran.

Marko Papic:

Um, so the, I've said many times this year and last year,

Marko Papic:

Iran and Israel can go at it.

Marko Papic:

They can do whatever they want to each other, and nothing will

Marko Papic:

happen to the rest of the world.

Marko Papic:

So this is a very important point.

Marko Papic:

Iran and Israel can have a full out war for the next two years, and

Marko Papic:

it may be like a tree that falls in the forest that nobody hears.

Jacob Shapiro:

Tree falls in the oasis or the desert, I don't

Marko Papic:

know.

Marko Papic:

In the desert.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

The date tree falls over.

Marko Papic:

So why, why?

Marko Papic:

Because, um, look, Iran has to, uh, close the straits of MOUs for this to be taken

Marko Papic:

seriously by anybody listening to this.

Marko Papic:

I'm assuming that Iranian regime is not listening to this.

Marko Papic:

You know, you guys should take this seriously.

Marko Papic:

Israel is going at it.

Marko Papic:

Um, but other, other than that, I mean, look, um, the way that this conflict

Marko Papic:

articulates itself in oil prices, in gold prices, in stock prices is that Iran

Marko Papic:

has to close the straits or for moose.

Marko Papic:

And if the Houthis can close the Red Sea, you know, uh, if the Houthis can

Marko Papic:

do that to the Red Sea, I mean, Iran could do that to the Straits of Remus.

Marko Papic:

And I just wanna explain this because this is kind of complicated.

Marko Papic:

Iran cannot really conventionally retaliate successfully, at least

Marko Papic:

against Israel or really anyone.

Marko Papic:

Uh, it can, you know, shoot some ballistic missiles and drones.

Marko Papic:

You know, that's unfortunate for people on the receiving end, but it's not tragic.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, and, and to, to that point, apparently Iran

Jacob Shapiro:

sent its first salvo of drones.

Jacob Shapiro:

Israel warned its population to get ready and then sent out a, we got them all.

Jacob Shapiro:

Don't worry, you can go back to your life.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, I mean, just like laying it on

Marko Papic:

for a while.

Marko Papic:

But you know what, that also shows multiple things.

Marko Papic:

Jacob.

Marko Papic:

It, it means that Iran did not have a plan to retaliate, like ready to go.

Marko Papic:

Like, you know, you know, this is one of those things, like this

Marko Papic:

is something that might happen.

Marko Papic:

Like I live in California, we may have a huge earthquake.

Marko Papic:

I have rubber boots, I have water, I have supply of food, like I have flashlights

Marko Papic:

this, like, if there's an earthquake right now, my family and I are now

Marko Papic:

like, oh, well let's send some drones.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know, like,

Marko Papic:

no, like why isn't there a ballistic attack?

Marko Papic:

Why isn't there, you know, why isn't there a huge salvo?

Marko Papic:

Like, why are they not ready?

Marko Papic:

Instead, it's like some hundred drones.

Marko Papic:

Like it's, it's very, Imma amateurish, but let's leave that aside.

Marko Papic:

I mean, look, the point is, while Iran's military is incredibly dilapidated.

Marko Papic:

There's an asymmetry to it in that closing, a shipping lane doesn't

Marko Papic:

require that much sophistication.

Marko Papic:

You can do it with drones.

Marko Papic:

You are attacking civilian tankers, okay?

Marko Papic:

They're undefended.

Marko Papic:

So you can, you can really make it difficult for ships to transit

Marko Papic:

with very low sophistication.

Marko Papic:

Houthis have proven that, and so while Iran has no ability to conventionally

Marko Papic:

fight a war with really Israel or c conventionally to threaten American

Marko Papic:

forces in the region, they just don't.

Marko Papic:

They have enough sophistication to close shipping causal oppresses to

Marko Papic:

go up, but they haven't done it.

Marko Papic:

Why?

Marko Papic:

Because, because of two reasons.

Marko Papic:

One, that will invite massive retaliation from the United States of America,

Marko Papic:

the kind that turns you into a parking lot.

Marko Papic:

Iran has no way to defend against that.

Marko Papic:

So it's kind of crossing the Rubicon that is the nuclear option.

Marko Papic:

Actually, it's not nuclear weapons.

Marko Papic:

It will be closing the streets of, once you do that, you know it's fair game.

Marko Papic:

At that point, even China's like, Hey America, please can

Marko Papic:

you turn Iran into a parking lot?

Marko Papic:

So that's the first issue.

Marko Papic:

The second issue is that it would tip the scales of conflict in the

Marko Papic:

region so vastly against Iran because it would invite Saudi participation.

Marko Papic:

As you point out, Iran is holding on to some very nice

Marko Papic:

juicy assets for the long term.

Marko Papic:

One of them is Iraq.

Marko Papic:

It's holding on to Iraq because the Saudis effectively seeded Iraq to Iran

Marko Papic:

when they negotiated their 2022 Deante.

Marko Papic:

And so there's a quid pro quo.

Marko Papic:

Saudi Arabia said to Iran, you can have Iraq, you can control it

Marko Papic:

through your proxies, political and militant, but you leave us alone.

Marko Papic:

No more drone attacks against our energy facilities.

Marko Papic:

And notice that this Detant has held from October 7th, 2023 onwards.

Marko Papic:

It's held through the Iranis Israel missile strikes in 2024.

Marko Papic:

They were unprecedented and the people thought would cause oil

Marko Papic:

prices to go through the roof.

Marko Papic:

They didn't.

Marko Papic:

It's held throughout the Houthis who are allied with Iran, not proxies,

Marko Papic:

allied throughout the HTI drone campaign against shipping in the Red Sea.

Marko Papic:

Notice how all the drones went south, as if their joystick controls

Marko Papic:

are stuck in the south position.

Marko Papic:

None of them went north to Saudi facilities or Persian Gulf.

Marko Papic:

Why not?

Marko Papic:

I mean, hey, Houthis, if you wanna make a big splash about what's going on in

Marko Papic:

Gaza, shut down the streets of ous.

Marko Papic:

It's kind of equidistant to the Red Sea.

Marko Papic:

So why haven't the Houthis done that?

Marko Papic:

Because Iran told them not to.

Marko Papic:

Iran and Saudi Arabia have a Deante, and it's a very important

Marko Papic:

one, and it's the most important part of this story to today.

Marko Papic:

It's not about Israeli capabilities or cool special forces or the

Marko Papic:

next movie that will be directed about like their incursion.

Marko Papic:

Like everyone's like obsessing about silly little military stuff.

Marko Papic:

The most important question is what will happen in terms of Iranian retaliation

Marko Papic:

and will they rip off the bandaid?

Marko Papic:

Will they cross the Rubicon, whatever analogy you want, and

Marko Papic:

attack Saudi facilities and shipping through the per of Gulf?

Marko Papic:

And my answer is no.

Marko Papic:

And that's why that Saudi statement is so important because the Saudis

Marko Papic:

are saying like, look guys, like this is between you Actually,

Marko Papic:

no, they're not even saying that.

Marko Papic:

They're actually saying like, yo, Israel, Israel is the bad guy.

Marko Papic:

They're straight up saying Israel's the bad guy.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Uh, which is not that much of a shift.

Marko Papic:

I mean, they've been saying that really since October 7th, uh, and

Marko Papic:

throughout 2024, although they did participate allegedly in shooting

Marko Papic:

down some projectiles that were flying over Saudi territory.

Marko Papic:

And, you know, uh, the way they justified that to Iran is like, Hey man, like.

Marko Papic:

You don't need to fly over Saudi Arabia to hit Israel, you

Marko Papic:

know, like, look at a map, bro.

Marko Papic:

Like, so please don't, you know, like, like, yeah, we're

Marko Papic:

gonna defend our airspace.

Marko Papic:

Like that's, so that wasn't really, like a lot of people in the West

Marko Papic:

thought that this was pro Israeli.

Marko Papic:

It's not, uh, they're defending their airspace.

Marko Papic:

So I think this is why Jacob, my hot take on this is Iran does have the

Marko Papic:

capability to disrupt shipping and cause oil prices to go up a hundred dollars.

Marko Papic:

But there's two things that if they do that, there's two bad

Marko Papic:

effects that will happen to them.

Marko Papic:

America, American military is not as hot as people think it is.

Marko Papic:

But let me be very, very clear.

Marko Papic:

There's one thing that the United States of America does better

Marko Papic:

than any country in history.

Marko Papic:

I mean, and, and not better.

Marko Papic:

Like it's number one, it's like number one, 2000.

Marko Papic:

Nobody pulverizes you from 30,000 feet like the US Air Force, when America

Marko Papic:

doesn't care about in invading, when America doesn't care about putting,

Marko Papic:

uh, boots on the ground when it doesn't care what you do to your own people,

Marko Papic:

when it doesn't care about turning you into Wisconsin and making sure

Marko Papic:

you have like Wendy's on every corner.

Marko Papic:

When America just wants to flatten you, it's, it's unrivaled.

Marko Papic:

And so if Iran crosses that Rubicon, it will be punished.

Marko Papic:

And then the second issue is that if they cross it, if they get on the bedside

Marko Papic:

of Saudi Arabia, they tilt the regional balance vastly against themselves.

Marko Papic:

Basically Saudi resources, but also Saudi intelligence capabilities in Iraq.

Marko Papic:

Will they be activated against Iranian interests?

Marko Papic:

And then, you know, it's really game over for a little semblance

Marko Papic:

of hegemony that Iran still has.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, well first of all, you uh, you betrayed your lack of knowledge of the

Jacob Shapiro:

geopolitics of the Midwest because it wouldn't be a Wendy's on every corner.

Jacob Shapiro:

It would be a Culver's.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I hope that the five Wisconsin listeners that we have really appreciate

Jacob Shapiro:

that call out from yours truly.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I've eaten enough of those cheeseburgers and I'm on a perpetual

Jacob Shapiro:

quest as a Jew to find the greatest cheeseburger in the history of the world,

Jacob Shapiro:

which is, you know, you as you know, funny for lots of different reasons.

Jacob Shapiro:

We can get into that another time.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, well, I, I have two or three things I wanna say in response to what you said.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I, I can get along with most of what you said, but I, I, I wanna,

Jacob Shapiro:

I wanna think about it also from a different angle, which is, um, it seems

Jacob Shapiro:

to me analytically, or one of the things I'm trying to parse is, was this an

Jacob Shapiro:

attack on Iran's nuclear capability?

Jacob Shapiro:

To set it back or to wipe it out, or is this really an attempt at regime change?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because Israel has also said, look, this is not a one day thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're ready to go for the next two weeks, and the Israeli population

Jacob Shapiro:

is ready to endure whatever it has to do for the next two weeks.

Jacob Shapiro:

We took out.

Jacob Shapiro:

All those guys that I mentioned in the first wave, you also

Jacob Shapiro:

saw what we did to Hezbollah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the unsaid thing there is supreme leader ham hamani.

Jacob Shapiro:

Where are you?

Jacob Shapiro:

Do you feel safe where you are President of Iran, where are you?

Jacob Shapiro:

Do you feel safe where you are?

Jacob Shapiro:

You shouldn't.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and this is the other thing I, uh, that's sort of part of this,

Jacob Shapiro:

which is, um, you know, Iran's military dilapidated fine, but this

Jacob Shapiro:

is not just about an inability to, um, to have conventional offensive.

Jacob Shapiro:

Counter attack capability.

Jacob Shapiro:

It looks like Israel has just decimated their ability to defend themselves.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, at, at least here on June 3rd at 10 o'clock in the morning like this, I,

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't wanna say it's a little cavalier for me to say that Iranian skies belong

Jacob Shapiro:

to Israel, but Israel is hitting whatever it wants, however, often it wants with

Jacob Shapiro:

fighter jets that I know can't, like, you know, these are long distance flights

Jacob Shapiro:

that the Israelis are having to take.

Jacob Shapiro:

So unless they're secretly going off a carrier, a US carrier, or

Jacob Shapiro:

out of Azerbaijan or something like that, aggregators, I'm not

Jacob Shapiro:

saying that's what happened.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm just saying unless there's some secret here we don't know about.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, you know, they're going along, along sort distance.

Marko Papic:

Don't think we're, I don't think we're big enough

Marko Papic:

to be aggregated, but Jacob.

Marko Papic:

Couple, well, we, we

Jacob Shapiro:

might be after this times of crisis or when,

Jacob Shapiro:

or when people listen in.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the reason I bring that up is because, um, well, it's twofold, number

Jacob Shapiro:

one, like you're right, as long as this Iranian regime stays in place,

Jacob Shapiro:

but what if, and it's a huge gamble and I'm not sure they're gonna pull it off.

Jacob Shapiro:

What if this is the end of the Islam?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

So public I would have to, and that's a whole big thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then the second thing I just wanna say, and then you can take the

Jacob Shapiro:

wheel, is, you know, you said the nuclear option was a straight of whom.

Jacob Shapiro:

This now gets to the question of how far advanced is Iran

Jacob Shapiro:

with a nuclear weapon itself?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because if it's advanced enough to where.

Jacob Shapiro:

The supreme leader was just saying, don't do the final screws, because I want to

Jacob Shapiro:

be able to have this negotiation process.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if it could be very simply just sort of, Hey, let's complete

Jacob Shapiro:

the process really fast and have a bomb, the thing that strikes me is

Jacob Shapiro:

Iran's back is against the wall.

Jacob Shapiro:

Their, their conventional defenses have failed.

Jacob Shapiro:

They have no legitimate counter attack that they can go to any attack that they

Jacob Shapiro:

do on, you know, Persian Gulf shipping.

Jacob Shapiro:

Anything else like that is gonna bring down the goat of long-range

Jacob Shapiro:

bombardment on them, or is gonna break the Saudi thing, which is the goat.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, it would be really nice to have a nuclear deterrent right now.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is the whole reason they want the nuclear deterrent.

Jacob Shapiro:

Their proxies, by the way, are also gone.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hezbollah's sitting it out.

Jacob Shapiro:

Houthis know where to be found.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're not gonna affect this.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if you could have a nuke, like now would be the time to show it off

Jacob Shapiro:

and say, okay, if you keep coming at us, like here's a dirty bomb for you.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, we will go this far.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I, I was sort of having that crazy thought that I was as I was

Jacob Shapiro:

thinking about all that anyway.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, that's not crazy at all.

Marko Papic:

No, that's not crazy at all.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, first I think, um.

Marko Papic:

I don't think regime change is possible, like Israel has not been

Marko Papic:

able to do regime change in Gaza.

Marko Papic:

Why would it be able to do it in Iran

Jacob Shapiro:

if it can assassinate the Hezbollah leadership?

Jacob Shapiro:

And if let's say they take out the president of Iran and the Supreme leader,

Marko Papic:

I, I think that that just replaces them, right?

Marko Papic:

I mean, we've seen this story play out in with Hezbollah and Hamas as well.

Marko Papic:

Syria.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, but those are like little JI groups that hide in bunkers.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is a state that governs 80 plus million people, a large swath of whom

Jacob Shapiro:

want nothing to do with these guys.

Marko Papic:

So, but isn't Well, yeah, I mean maybe, you know, um, there is also

Marko Papic:

the circling of the wagons that happens.

Marko Papic:

I mean, while vast majority of Iranians don't want to follow their leadership,

Marko Papic:

they're also anti-Israeli, you know, so.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

It can backfire and the difference the counter that you should, you should.

Marko Papic:

Send at me.

Marko Papic:

The country is Syria.

Marko Papic:

Right?

Marko Papic:

But Syria, Syria was a country.

Marko Papic:

It's a great example of what happens when you completely isolate yourself.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Syria had Turkey against Assad.

Marko Papic:

You had Saudi Arabia raid.

Marko Papic:

I mean, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, America we're

Marko Papic:

all on the same side, you know?

Marko Papic:

So that's, that's a good example of what happens, why you

Marko Papic:

don't wanna isolate yourself.

Marko Papic:

There's also actual militants on the territory of Syria.

Marko Papic:

So this isn't, I, I, I've heard this regime change theory a lot

Marko Papic:

today, and I just, you know, I don't think that that's where Israel is

Marko Papic:

able to go, but it doesn't matter.

Marko Papic:

Look, let's, let's, let's array some of the things that you've said.

Marko Papic:

Um, in terms of military capabilities, Israel has some refueling capacity.

Marko Papic:

Boeing seven oh sevens, they haven't received the kc uh, uh, kcs yet.

Marko Papic:

Uh, which, uh, they, they've had an order since 2020, so, uh, that

Marko Papic:

hasn't been delivered actually yet.

Marko Papic:

So they have some domestic ones, but it's not.

Marko Papic:

It's not as, uh, sophisticated as what the Americans would give them if they

Marko Papic:

actually delivered, uh, the US airplanes.

Marko Papic:

So they, they're gonna have to do this in waves of fighter jets.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

The problem with fighter jets is that they're, uh, vulnerable to air defenses.

Marko Papic:

And this is where your point is so critical.

Marko Papic:

Where is Iran's vaunted?

Marko Papic:

S3 hundreds?

Marko Papic:

They've clearly been disabled.

Marko Papic:

Last year's attack that Israel performed, if you remember, it was a

Marko Papic:

single strike and everybody was kind of confused what the single strike was.

Marko Papic:

It apparently targeted the Raider installations for the S3 hundreds sending

Marko Papic:

a message to Iran that we can blind you.

Marko Papic:

So, um, it appears that that's what's happened.

Marko Papic:

So it's fine.

Marko Papic:

Like Israel now has control over skies, as you said.

Marko Papic:

The problem for Israel is that its tools for navigated Iran's skies are

Marko Papic:

still, uh, limited attacking with fighter jets, there's a problem.

Marko Papic:

You have to, they have to be fully loaded with fuel.

Marko Papic:

Which means they cannot carry as much ordinance and the ordinance that they

Marko Papic:

carry is limited, particularly because the US as is now very much known and has been

Marko Papic:

known for decades, the US has not provided Israel with the bunker buster technology

Marko Papic:

that's required to fully damage Fordo.

Marko Papic:

Fordo is 40 meters underground, some say half a mile.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I didn't know that.

Marko Papic:

I thought it was just 40 meters.

Marko Papic:

Doesn't matter.

Marko Papic:

Many of the tunnels are 90 degree angles.

Marko Papic:

You know, bunker buster technology can't deal with that.

Marko Papic:

You need what the Americans have, which, which can completely destroy much

Marko Papic:

deeper, much wider range of penetration.

Marko Papic:

That's not what Israelis have.

Marko Papic:

So, um, this attack ultimately is not going to completely

Marko Papic:

destroy Iran's nuclear program.

Marko Papic:

I think that there's limits to how much Israel can do, and that's why

Marko Papic:

I think that ultimately we have to also consider that both sides

Marko Papic:

are limited in what they can do.

Marko Papic:

And that's where the US is so important.

Marko Papic:

In a way Israel wants to draw Americans in.

Marko Papic:

This is all, this has been for a long time a theory like what if Israel just done

Marko Papic:

ki does kind of like a halfway attack, hopes that Iran retaliates in a way that

Marko Papic:

matters to America, like attacks the base.

Marko Papic:

The air base in Qatar attacks the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain.

Marko Papic:

You know, the military bases in Iraq are, I think, fair game at this point.

Marko Papic:

It's fine.

Marko Papic:

Iran has attacked them before many times.

Marko Papic:

Uh, but if Iran retaliates against the US or shipping interest in the streets

Marko Papic:

of MOUs, then this attacks from a strategic perspective for Israel is a win.

Marko Papic:

If it doesn't, it's kind of like not a win.

Marko Papic:

In fact, it probably accelerates the nuclear program, as you pointed out,

Marko Papic:

um, where Iran needs that breakout capacity as soon as possible.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I mean, and maybe the precedent was already set.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I can, I can hear an Israeli strategist telling me I'm gonna, I'm a

Jacob Shapiro:

weenie for what I'm about to say, but I mean, this is a preemptive strike.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, while the, while Iran was negotiating with the United States like, and yes,

Jacob Shapiro:

Israel is from a, from a technological capacity, military capacity is so far

Jacob Shapiro:

advanced than all of the rivals that are around it in the Middle East,

Jacob Shapiro:

that nobody can compete with them.

Jacob Shapiro:

But that's not always gonna be the case.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like we, we did our geopolitical power ranking a couple of episodes ago, and

Jacob Shapiro:

I left Israel off the top 20 because I said, I mean, they're there today, but 20,

Jacob Shapiro:

30 years from now, like, we don't think that some of these other countries are

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna be able to develop either nuclear weapons or drone technologies, or do

Jacob Shapiro:

the things that Israel is doing to Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

And now Israel's done it first.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, you know, like if, if you, if you are Iran, or let's say you're Turkey or some

Jacob Shapiro:

jihadist group in the future, like the precedent has, al has already been broken.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I don't know, maybe people don't care about precedents, but the continued

Jacob Shapiro:

breakdown of international norms, which is also part of that Saudi

Jacob Shapiro:

statement, like the, the rules are gone.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, it's okay, fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like go, go like bomb Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's gonna be no like consequences, like nobody's going to punish you for it.

Jacob Shapiro:

And well Iran, nobody's gonna see like,

Marko Papic:

yeah, Iran if they

Jacob Shapiro:

can, but it's

Marko Papic:

up to Iran to punish, you know, like, and if they can't

Marko Papic:

then they probably should have, uh, not supported Hezbollah us.

Marko Papic:

I mean, you know, like these are consequences to what Iran does as well.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And that's where, that's where I think, you know, you can understand this attack

Marko Papic:

by Israel, even if they cannot actually hurt fordo, which is where all the

Marko Papic:

enrichment fci, uh, all the important centrifuges are for the enrichment.

Marko Papic:

So I, I don't think that Israel has managed to overcome technological.

Marko Papic:

Deficiencies that it has.

Marko Papic:

Of course, the nuclear program is also more than just centrifuges.

Marko Papic:

It's

Jacob Shapiro:

people, it's also humans.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're going after people and they've been going after people for a while,

Marko Papic:

for a while.

Marko Papic:

That's, that's all, that's, that's fine.

Marko Papic:

You know, like, I mean, but here's, but here's the issue though.

Marko Papic:

We also have to consider domestic politics of Israel as well.

Marko Papic:

There's clearly pressure on Netanyahu, uh, to basically, uh, you know, continue with

Marko Papic:

aggressive foreign and military policies, whether in Lebanon, in Gaza or Iran.

Marko Papic:

Um, he can't survive without that.

Marko Papic:

There has to be a perpetual war for him to stay in power.

Marko Papic:

And the reason I say that is not to criticize him.

Marko Papic:

I mean, God bless him.

Marko Papic:

He can do whatever he wants, you know, that's, that's his, that's his choice.

Marko Papic:

The issue though is that he does over the long term, it,

Marko Papic:

it doesn't, like his domestic political logic is likely not this.

Marko Papic:

It, it is not as beneficial for Israel in the long term.

Marko Papic:

And that is something I, I would point out as well.

Marko Papic:

I mean, if oftentimes domestic political logic will impede the geopolitical goals

Marko Papic:

over the long term, and I think one of the, one of the problems here is that,

Marko Papic:

um, it's not clear to me that regime change would change anything for Israel.

Marko Papic:

Iran, Iran.

Marko Papic:

In Iran.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

And, and, and, and I think, I think any country in this region is likely

Marko Papic:

going to want to have a nuclear weapon like after this attack.

Marko Papic:

That's,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean that, that I think is already true.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think you're underplaying the potential significance of regime change.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I actually think we're seeing this play out right now with Syria.

Jacob Shapiro:

I dunno if you saw like a week or two ago, Netanyahu basically said We want

Jacob Shapiro:

the United States to broker peace talks with the new Syrian government.

Jacob Shapiro:

And Syria seems to be open to it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Is, uh, I mean, Israel's wanted, you know, some kind of, you know, Jordan or

Jacob Shapiro:

Egypt level relationship with Syria since literally the 1970s and hasn't been able

Jacob Shapiro:

to get it because Assad was, you know, sort of sticking to those old things.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if you can, and you know, now Syria is led by some former Jihadists, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

and like, they're gonna be willing to sit down with Israel to reach some

Jacob Shapiro:

kind of agreement, probably, yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause they don't want to keep getting bombed by their

Jacob Shapiro:

more sophisticated neighbor.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're gonna play a longer game going forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I think if you, if you could take down like the theocratic, you know,

Jacob Shapiro:

thuggish element that runs Iran, and if you could get secularists and

Jacob Shapiro:

power, I mean, that would be pretty powerful for, for Israel, I think.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that would be a really big deal.

Marko Papic:

I think, I think that is the conventional view.

Marko Papic:

I think that is the Israeli view, and I think that, uh, in a way

Marko Papic:

that's going to probably allow the regime in Iran to survive longer.

Marko Papic:

Because again, it's not Lebanon, it's not Gaza, it's a place,

Marko Papic:

it's a very large place.

Marko Papic:

You can hide in a lot of different places.

Marko Papic:

The idea that Israel is gonna be able to take a, I just don't see that.

Marko Papic:

But you know, I could be wrong o obviously.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, I don't know, but like, let, let's say that they,

Jacob Shapiro:

let's say for the sake of argument that they can, like if, let's say

Jacob Shapiro:

they assassinate the supreme leader and the president in the next strike.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm not saying it, you find other.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, do you find other ones or do or or do people rise

Jacob Shapiro:

up and say, we're replacing?

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause there's already factions waiting for this, waiting to fight

Jacob Shapiro:

it out when the supreme leader dies.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there's internal incoherence Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Within the Iranian political establishment already.

Marko Papic:

He's very old.

Marko Papic:

Ands sick.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you know, the, and he's also been trying to, you know,

Jacob Shapiro:

put his son forward to replace him, which is like, wow, like the Iranian

Jacob Shapiro:

revolution only took 40 years to die.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, the whole idea was we're not gonna have monarchies in the Shah

Jacob Shapiro:

passing things down to his stupid son.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

So now the Supreme leadership passes down, like through hereditary means.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, which, which has gotten a lot of pushback there as well.

Jacob Shapiro:

But also think back to the Rouhani government and how Rouhani was trying

Jacob Shapiro:

to take the reins away from the IRGC and he got his sort of hand slapped on it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I was also, I was talking to this, uh, Iranian security expert

Jacob Shapiro:

before we got on, and he talked about to him one of the most.

Jacob Shapiro:

Impressive things about what Israel was doing was a sophisticated

Jacob Shapiro:

social media campaign in Persian going after Iranian social media.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he said there were basically two like feelings on Iranian social media.

Jacob Shapiro:

One was, this is not good.

Jacob Shapiro:

We don't wanna be attacked by Israel.

Jacob Shapiro:

You, you know, sort of rally around the flag thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the second aspect he said was there was also this very real undercurrent

Jacob Shapiro:

of, well, we don't care if the IRGC commander gets got, he was killing

Jacob Shapiro:

young Iranian protesters in the streets as recently as a couple of months ago.

Jacob Shapiro:

And this supreme leader guy who's trying to basically put the Shah back on top

Jacob Shapiro:

of us, except with Shiite theocratic, you know, antiquated ideas, eh, like

Jacob Shapiro:

would we really be that sat like, yes, we'll have our problems with

Jacob Shapiro:

Israel, but like there's also like some level of, okay, like this is okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, it's not like we love this regime that much and that there

Jacob Shapiro:

aren't internal tensions there.

Jacob Shapiro:

And for, for Israel, if you could just, like, I'm not saying you're

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna make Iran your best friend, but if you could at least get it from.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hey, you're the great Satan.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're gonna wipe you off the face of the earth to little.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hey, we're not friends.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's have negotiations.

Jacob Shapiro:

Little Satan.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's be,

Marko Papic:

let's be clear.

Marko Papic:

But listen, yeah, little I hear, I hear all that.

Marko Papic:

It's just that that's just not the way the world works, though.

Marko Papic:

It does in the long term.

Marko Papic:

It does in the long term.

Marko Papic:

But like, I would have to dig deep into the historical bag to

Marko Papic:

find a case where something like that happens during the conflict.

Jacob Shapiro:

You don't think Syria qualify?

Jacob Shapiro:

I guess Syria was a longer thing over

Marko Papic:

time.

Marko Papic:

It just doesn't, it's been like, first of all, Asad didn't have control

Marko Papic:

over more than 50% of the territory.

Marko Papic:

It was, there was a civil war, there was a militant group.

Marko Papic:

Um, it's not like Israel caused regime change in Syria.

Marko Papic:

You know, they aided it.

Marko Papic:

They were great participant in it, but there was clearly a civil war since 2011.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, so what about, what about Japan?

Jacob Shapiro:

1945.

Marko Papic:

Okay, fine.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

Great example, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

I will, I will concede once Israel nukes Iran and invades it with a million men.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

So this is, this is my point.

Marko Papic:

Like, but but listen, but listen, here's, here's a counter.

Marko Papic:

Here's a counter.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

They kind of both supports my view and your view.

Marko Papic:

1999 NATO air campaign against Serbia.

Marko Papic:

Hmm.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

I can tell you it definitely did not in the moment incite and any anti

Marko Papic:

mil sentiment, even pro-democracy, liberal people in Belgrade were

Marko Papic:

standing on bridges with little targets saying to Nate Obamas right.

Marko Papic:

But basically 12 months later, you know, when you took stock of the situation

Marko Papic:

and said, what was all this for?

Marko Papic:

There was the revolution in October of 2000.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

So my, but, but that's, that's a different situation too.

Marko Papic:

I mean, like, you know, Serbia took on the entire alliance of nato

Marko Papic:

and NATO can do a lot of damage.

Marko Papic:

Israel can't, Israel cannot do that level of damage.

Marko Papic:

So my, my question, unless,

Jacob Shapiro:

unless it nukes them,

Marko Papic:

right?

Marko Papic:

Well, yeah.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

Uh, but, but my, my point, my point is that even in that situation, it took

Marko Papic:

some time before people took that stock of like, Hey, what was this all for?

Marko Papic:

So I'm not saying that regime change can't come as a result of this.

Marko Papic:

I just think it will be sometime later.

Marko Papic:

This is one of the many moments in Iran's story that lead to the

Marko Papic:

realization by the vast majority of the people in that country.

Marko Papic:

Like, this is stupid.

Marko Papic:

Like, we can't, we can't even retaliate against Israel.

Marko Papic:

So what's the whole point of all this?

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

And I think that that's, that's possible.

Marko Papic:

I just, I, I would rather kind of focus, I. Because it's a more of a longer term

Marko Papic:

team and it's not gonna happen overnight.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Um, Iran is a more sophisticated political system than like Gaza or Hezbollah.

Marko Papic:

And I, and I just feel a lot of commentary today.

Marko Papic:

It's like if they just put some page of bombs in pagers, you know, like, no, it's,

Marko Papic:

it's gonna be more difficult than that.

Marko Papic:

Nonetheless, for all their sophistication, size, strength, inherent kind of

Marko Papic:

geopolitical value, like their S3 hundreds are clearly completely useless.

Marko Papic:

Their air defense system, the surface to air LS three hundreds

Marko Papic:

they got from Russia fairly sophisticated, has not ha made a dent.

Marko Papic:

As you pointed out, Israel can pretty much fly in and out, you know, it can

Marko Papic:

be just like a routine flight for their fighter jets, you know, across the region.

Marko Papic:

Um, and that's a real problem because what do you do at this point?

Marko Papic:

They're kind of like North Korea, Iran is kind of like North Korea,

Marko Papic:

and let me explain what I mean.

Marko Papic:

There's very few ways to retaliate in limited way.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, you, you either, you know, fly some drones to Israel,

Marko Papic:

which Israel just destroys.

Marko Papic:

Or you go for broke and you shut down the streets, or for most, and then, yes, we

Marko Papic:

should talk about regime change because once the US starts using something that

Marko Papic:

Israel does not have, which is long range strategic bombers, you're cooked, you're

Marko Papic:

completely and utterly cooked, and at that point you are risking regime survival.

Marko Papic:

You can block off the straits of ramus while done, you know, because

Marko Papic:

civilian shipping, again, can't really evade anti-ship cruise missiles,

Marko Papic:

which Iran has, can't really evade.

Marko Papic:

Even little dinghies, you know, little zodiac boats with like a dude with

Marko Papic:

a, with a shoulder launch surface to air missile, like whatever, like,

Marko Papic:

you know, it's, it's a real problem.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, well, but, so I, I think that survive an important question.

Jacob Shapiro:

Survive.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that's an important question that you just landed on.

Jacob Shapiro:

So let me rephrase it back at you because one of my clients this morning

Jacob Shapiro:

asked me, you know, what are American options today after what's happened?

Jacob Shapiro:

And I said, okay, there's basically four they can join in and completely

Jacob Shapiro:

wipe out Iran and lead to regime change.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that's one, um, they can covertly support it, but not

Jacob Shapiro:

sort of publicly be there.

Jacob Shapiro:

So try and, you know, let, let Israel take as many licks as

Jacob Shapiro:

they want, but not get involved.

Jacob Shapiro:

They can stay out of it.

Jacob Shapiro:

They can be truly isolationist.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, you know, the, the Rubio statement or.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, maybe the donnall is angling for his Nobel Peace Prize.

Jacob Shapiro:

They come in as the great peacemaker.

Jacob Shapiro:

They say, we have made peace between Iran and Israel.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're gonna tariff both of you unless you stop throwing the missiles

Jacob Shapiro:

and the drones at each other.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sit down against the table and figure this out.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm asking you the question there is, where do you think the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States goes from here?

Jacob Shapiro:

Do you think the United States wanted this and like, wanted the

Jacob Shapiro:

excuse that Israel's opening for it?

Jacob Shapiro:

Or do you think that the United States was like, okay, we'll use Israeli

Jacob Shapiro:

aggressiveness to get to what we really wanted, which is a deal with this regime?

Marko Papic:

I mean, I trust President Trump where he, when he tweets, sorry.

Marko Papic:

I do.

Marko Papic:

So I don't think that he wanted this, 'cause he said

Marko Papic:

that, and that is a problem.

Marko Papic:

That's why his tweet, that's why his statements today are so aggressive.

Marko Papic:

Marco Rubio's statement when this happened was very terse like,

Marko Papic:

no statement about supporting Israel's rights to self defense.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Zero, zero.

Marko Papic:

It was like, Hey, America was not participant in this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

The, the French statement was friendlier towards Israel

Jacob Shapiro:

than Marco Rubio's statement.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

And then the next day Trump is saying like, aha, I told

Marko Papic:

you so better make a deal.

Marko Papic:

And it's like, eh, I don't like, that's bravado.

Marko Papic:

Right?

Marko Papic:

Because this is embarrassing for the US actually.

Marko Papic:

It shows it can't control its vessels, you know?

Marko Papic:

And Israel is effectively saying, we're not your vessel.

Marko Papic:

You know, we're gonna do whatever we want.

Marko Papic:

And that's

Jacob Shapiro:

you.

Jacob Shapiro:

You don't believe the, the conspiracy theory that actually, like the United

Jacob Shapiro:

States wanted Israel to do this secretly,

Marko Papic:

one of, one of the greatest Salt Park episodes

Marko Papic:

is the one about nine 11.

Marko Papic:

It's when the boys find out that nine 11 was an inside job.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

And.

Marko Papic:

They pursue this to, to, to its core and George W. Bush and the cabinet

Marko Papic:

basically imprisons them because they find out that it wasn't an inside

Marko Papic:

job, but they find out that the US government is propagating the myth.

Marko Papic:

The day blew up the Twin towers.

Marko Papic:

And so the, the boys confront George W. Bush in the episode and they're

Marko Papic:

like, why are you propagating the rumor that you did this?

Marko Papic:

And George W. Bush says, an incredible statement.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, if you're a conspiracy theorist, you have to watch this to

Marko Papic:

cleanse yourself of that stupidity.

Marko Papic:

And George W. Bush looks at the little boys and says, if people

Marko Papic:

don't think that we did it, they'll think we're incompetent.

Marko Papic:

If they find out that a bunch of dudes in caves.

Marko Papic:

Destroyed the Twin Towers in New York City.

Marko Papic:

They'll think that we, the US government is incompetent.

Marko Papic:

So yes, we're propagating these rumors.

Marko Papic:

So this is South Park.

Jacob Shapiro:

South Park is truly the brothers car of, of our time.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is basically the grand inquisitor updated with to, uh, you know, when I

Jacob Shapiro:

was doing my things that are happening

Marko Papic:

right now.

Marko Papic:

Listen, Jacob, when I was doing my PhD, I, I kept referencing South Park so

Marko Papic:

much in my, uh, PhD philosophy class.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

I had to take philosophy, you know, for political science, PhD. And, uh, my

Marko Papic:

professor was just like, can you make me a DVD of like the greatest hits?

Marko Papic:

'cause clearly I've missed this in my, in my academic studies, like, so I agree

Marko Papic:

with you, but, but here's what I'm saying.

Marko Papic:

Of course Trump is gonna say, and of course the, the media machine

Marko Papic:

in America is gonna say like, oh, we knew ha ha, yeah, we've been

Marko Papic:

in on this planet from day one.

Marko Papic:

That's the whole thing.

Marko Papic:

We're not incompetent.

Marko Papic:

Our ally, Israel didn't just do something behind our back

Marko Papic:

embarrassing us, quite frankly.

Marko Papic:

'cause we were about to meet with Iranians on Sunday.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

So I, I believe none of these rumors, and I don't care.

Marko Papic:

Like we could have Marco Rubio on this podcast.

Marko Papic:

You'll be like, no, Marco, you don't know.

Marko Papic:

I'm like, shut up.

Marko Papic:

I do know.

Marko Papic:

Fuck off.

Marko Papic:

Of course.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Oh yeah.

Marko Papic:

You guys were like in on it.

Marko Papic:

No, you weren't.

Jacob Shapiro:

You got spoiled.

Jacob Shapiro:

That would be fun actually, to have to have little Marco.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you can be big Marco.

Jacob Shapiro:

I guess.

Marko Papic:

I guess I could, I mean, by, I guess so.

Marko Papic:

I don't know.

Marko Papic:

I, I don't think he's that little.

Marko Papic:

I think that's unfair.

Marko Papic:

But listen, here's my point.

Marko Papic:

Of course,

Marko Papic:

of course.

Marko Papic:

They didn't know.

Marko Papic:

They got caught completely unaware.

Marko Papic:

So what do you think is gonna happen the next day?

Marko Papic:

Like, uh, no.

Marko Papic:

They're gonna be like, yeah, we were, of course we knew, like, remember

Marko Papic:

what Trump was like, heads up.

Marko Papic:

Heads up.

Marko Papic:

Well, and I, and I think Trump, we do

Jacob Shapiro:

Trump to, to, you know, a point we've made over and over

Jacob Shapiro:

again, like Trump has many faults.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's a master at social media and positioning.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's positioned, you know, the United States to make it seem like he knew

Jacob Shapiro:

what was going all along and this was good, but like now he has a choice.

Jacob Shapiro:

Does he use that to, at least in his truth, social post, it was

Jacob Shapiro:

about all right, like you have to negotiate or else you're gonna die.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well,

Marko Papic:

the problem with that, you know what the problem with that is?

Marko Papic:

What the problem with that Jacob is, if I'm Iran, I'm like, bro, come on man.

Marko Papic:

I just listened to geopolitical cousins and Marco is right.

Marko Papic:

You didn't know.

Marko Papic:

And if you don't know, how can you guarantee to me that you can stop Israel?

Marko Papic:

If I make a deal with you, deal with you, oh, okay, cool.

Marko Papic:

We're gonna make a deal and I'm gonna get to keep my nuclear

Marko Papic:

program for civilian uses.

Marko Papic:

What if it's not there?

Marko Papic:

Because Israel, your vassal state keeps bonding me.

Marko Papic:

Like if you cannot control Israel, so this is the problem for the

Marko Papic:

US if they cannot control Israel.

Marko Papic:

How can they make a deal with Iran?

Marko Papic:

And so that's why this is not just a, a, a funny little question,

Marko Papic:

you know, where we're like, Hey, like, hey, what did America know?

Marko Papic:

Oh, watch South Park, you know?

Marko Papic:

No, I mean, it's actually very critical to this whole situation.

Marko Papic:

Israel is fronting as if they're gonna continue this

Marko Papic:

operation for the next two weeks.

Marko Papic:

That's what Netanyahu said.

Marko Papic:

This is not a one day operation.

Marko Papic:

And the US is supposed to meet in musket in Oman, with Iranian officials.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, the, the, the hilarious part of this is us,

Marko Papic:

is like, we're still coming.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the Iranians were supposed to come, might be dead, they might not be alive.

Jacob Shapiro:

How

Marko Papic:

do I get to musket, bro?

Marko Papic:

Like I, if I get in a plane, am I gonna land in Oman?

Marko Papic:

Like, you know, like there's, Israelis are buzzing around me, like hornets.

Marko Papic:

I'm gonna get in the plane and go to Oman.

Marko Papic:

You can't, you don't know what's going on in the region, America.

Marko Papic:

This is what I, I'm now being Iran, right?

Marko Papic:

Like America, you don't, you have no idea what's going on here.

Marko Papic:

You want me to get on the plane and cross the Persian Gulf and land in Oman?

Marko Papic:

In Musco?

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

So I can meet with you.

Marko Papic:

For what reason?

Marko Papic:

You can't control Israel.

Marko Papic:

Why would I continue these negotiations?

Marko Papic:

And this is where, this is where what Israel did is truly pernicious

Marko Papic:

from an American perspective.

Marko Papic:

And I do think so when we think about this from a profound level, like

Marko Papic:

what's profound about this attack, it's the break between Israel and the us.

Marko Papic:

I don't buy for one second.

Marko Papic:

The US was aware of this operation for weeks.

Marko Papic:

Now there's a talk how it lulled Iran to sleep by continuing to negotiation.

Marko Papic:

Shut up again.

Marko Papic:

Watch South Park episode.

Marko Papic:

This is America just trying to make itself look like they weren't completely

Marko Papic:

unaware of what was gonna happen.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, now it is.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't mean, I think, I think credit to the Israelis, like there was a

Jacob Shapiro:

psychological warfare aspect where they lulled the Iranians to Yeah,

Marko Papic:

for sure.

Marko Papic:

I, I, you know, obviously, but they loved Americans as well, and I think

Marko Papic:

the problem now is how can you be a credible negotiator, you know?

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I have, I have two lighthearted points and then a more serious one.

Jacob Shapiro:

The first is when you were talking about Israel, like wanting to bring the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States in, it's ironic because that's basically the reverse Al-Qaeda,

Jacob Shapiro:

like that was Al-Qaeda's strategy, like bomb the World Trade Centers,

Jacob Shapiro:

and then you're gonna invite a bigger response and then people are gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

overthrow the regime that you don't like.

Jacob Shapiro:

So funny to see the Israelis taking a pic, uh, page out of Osama's, uh, book.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then also have, have you, has it struck you that like Israel is

Jacob Shapiro:

the real MAGA actor in the world?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like in the last week they've bombed the shit out of Iran and have arrested Greta

Jacob Shapiro:

Thunberg and embarrassed her and then like, you know, sent her back to Sweden

Jacob Shapiro:

without her lunch money or whatever.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I think they're the ones that are really doubling down on this.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the, the deeper point I wanted to say was, and this is the part that makes me

Jacob Shapiro:

nervous about what, what happens next?

Jacob Shapiro:

Um.

Jacob Shapiro:

Because I, I, I think we're in agreement, I think on most of the things that

Jacob Shapiro:

we talked about, but it seems to me that Iran's back is against the wall.

Jacob Shapiro:

They have no good options.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're screwed.

Jacob Shapiro:

And to your point, they can't, even, the negotiation with the United States

Jacob Shapiro:

is not something they can credibly do.

Jacob Shapiro:

To your point just now about Israel, you can't control, you

Jacob Shapiro:

know, your dog is off the leash.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, there's this, this Israeli actor that's just gonna keep bombing us.

Jacob Shapiro:

Why should we make any deal?

Jacob Shapiro:

And it seems to me that if they're truly desperate and if they have

Jacob Shapiro:

any nuclear material to go with, or any kind of last ditch effort, like,

Jacob Shapiro:

can they just really sit, maybe they sit there and take the punishment.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe I'm like underestimating that as a potential choice.

Jacob Shapiro:

It, it

Marko Papic:

depends.

Marko Papic:

I mean, yes, I, I hear you.

Marko Papic:

I think it depends what the US now offers them and how much, uh, you

Marko Papic:

know, look, I think, I think that this was 80% domestic politics, 20%

Marko Papic:

strategy, to be honest with you.

Marko Papic:

Hmm.

Marko Papic:

On Israel's part.

Marko Papic:

So that's, you know, that's my view.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think that Benjamin Netanyahu had to do this for domestic political reasons.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, he, you know, he had some, his far right religious partners were

Jacob Shapiro:

talking about leaving the coalition.

Jacob Shapiro:

So you're not, you're on firm ground, you're on terra

Jacob Shapiro:

firma there, and he, and if

Marko Papic:

he, if he loses power, who knows what happens to him.

Marko Papic:

So I think that, you know, like I, I buy that conspiracy theory, if you will.

Marko Papic:

Um, so here's what's gonna happen.

Marko Papic:

I think, um, there is a path here.

Marko Papic:

It's a narrow one, but I think that, um, if he did enough, you

Marko Papic:

know, then he can tell the Americans like, okay, go make a deal.

Marko Papic:

Like, I'll, I'll tone this down.

Marko Papic:

Like, I'll be amenable now, now that I've done this and maybe a couple

Marko Papic:

more days of like some targets, I'm amenable to being put back into the box.

Marko Papic:

And that opens up a chance for, uh, Iran to retaliate against Israel.

Marko Papic:

Um, nobody will care about that.

Marko Papic:

By the way.

Marko Papic:

Nobody like us is not gonna care.

Marko Papic:

Like that already happened.

Marko Papic:

We already set the threshold for caring.

Marko Papic:

It's pretty low.

Marko Papic:

Like Israel is going to be under attack by Iran for the next

Marko Papic:

like, couple weeks and you know, everyone's gonna move on from that.

Marko Papic:

The question is, well,

Jacob Shapiro:

in part, everybody's gonna move on.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause Iran can't seem to do anything.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like even last.

Jacob Shapiro:

Can't seem to

Marko Papic:

do.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

So like, why not?

Marko Papic:

You know, like last time I think they attacked Israel.

Marko Papic:

They killed a, like a badin.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

The negative, right?

Marko Papic:

They, they, that that's what happened.

Marko Papic:

Like a, a piece of shrapnel hit a poor guy in, in, in the desert.

Marko Papic:

So what I would say is, it really depends.

Marko Papic:

If it's 80 20 domestic politics, then Benjamin Yahu walks away from this

Marko Papic:

looking tough and concedes to the US the grounds to negotiate with Iran.

Marko Papic:

Like, okay, fine, I did what I need to do.

Marko Papic:

I'm gonna stay in power.

Marko Papic:

I'm gonna continue with, uh, you know, securing Israel in my own way.

Marko Papic:

You guys go deal with Iran now.

Marko Papic:

But that requires, of course, restraint from Iran.

Marko Papic:

And so far we've seen it.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the first statement by Iran after this event happened included America.

Marko Papic:

The, the state media also said that US is responsible.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

That's what happened right after the attack.

Marko Papic:

The statement today by the foreign minister clearly focused on Israel,

Marko Papic:

the drones that have attacked Israeli, uh, territory in retaliation.

Marko Papic:

Of course, it's just the first retaliation, but they could have easily

Marko Papic:

diverted some to us installations.

Marko Papic:

They didn't.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Or us, you know, naval vessels in the Persian Gulf.

Marko Papic:

Like there's all sorts of things they can do.

Marko Papic:

To me, to me, the threshold for Iran and what will tell us whether they're

Marko Papic:

open for negotiations or not, is this, this is what you need to watch.

Marko Papic:

If they don't attack naval vessels in the Persian Gulf that are just

Marko Papic:

floating around either American or civilian tankers, that's important.

Marko Papic:

The second is, uh, Saudi energy facilities, which I highly doubt they

Marko Papic:

will, but I'm just putting it out there.

Marko Papic:

And then, as I said, the air base in Qatar that the US shares with the

Marko Papic:

Qatari military and then the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain in Manama.

Marko Papic:

So that, that to me, if, if they attack those, I think

Marko Papic:

that they're going for broke.

Marko Papic:

You know, if they don't, if this is just about Israel and maybe

Marko Papic:

some symbolic attack against some American facilities in Iraq.

Marko Papic:

Now, the reason I say that that's not part of the threshold is our listeners should

Marko Papic:

remember that on January 3rd, 2020, the US assassinated general Soleimani mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Of the IRGC, Iran retaliated by attacking American facilities

Marko Papic:

in Iraq with cruise missiles.

Marko Papic:

And the US did not retaliate.

Marko Papic:

In fact, Donald Trump tweeted something like I. You know, I respect this.

Marko Papic:

Like I know they had to retaliate.

Marko Papic:

I now consider this matter over Vice President Harris actually brought that

Marko Papic:

statement up in her debates with Trump to illustrate that he was cavalier

Marko Papic:

about American servicemen injuries.

Marko Papic:

This actually, you know, I

Jacob Shapiro:

hadn't, I hadn't thought about her yet.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm glad you brought her up.

Jacob Shapiro:

Do you remember her 60 minutes interview?

Jacob Shapiro:

Of course, I do.

Jacob Shapiro:

Take 60 minutes where she said Iran was the biggest foreign policy

Jacob Shapiro:

threat to the United States course.

Jacob Shapiro:

Man, maybe Israelis would've liked her better than uh, Trump.

Marko Papic:

No, but one thing I would say, Jacob is in my annual forecast in

Marko Papic:

December of 2024, and I hate saying, uh, you know, like I was right.

Marko Papic:

But like, because of that, because of that 60 minute interview, because of that

Marko Papic:

60 minute interview that Harris gave and because of the increase in enrichment,

Marko Papic:

this was the easiest call to make maybe in my career, to say that kinetic action

Marko Papic:

against Iran is the greatest risk in 2025.

Marko Papic:

In fact, I went as far as to say that, uh, annual outlook, that it

Marko Papic:

would happen on January 21st, that the day after Trump's inauguration,

Marko Papic:

he would begin conflict with Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if it, if it had been up to be Benjamin Netanyahu,

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm sure that would've happened.

Marko Papic:

And I caveated it by saying rhetorical or kinetic, you know.

Marko Papic:

But what's interesting is that for six months he kind of, you know, put

Marko Papic:

an egg on all of the hawk's faces.

Marko Papic:

Not hawks.

Marko Papic:

I'm not a hawk, but like a bear.

Marko Papic:

Whatever you wanna call me.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Like somebody alarmists, alarmists, he really kind of like took us for a ride

Marko Papic:

there for six months negotiating with Iran much more in a much more conciliatory

Marko Papic:

ma way than he he usually does.

Marko Papic:

And I would say that in a way he's to blame for this.

Marko Papic:

In that he should have applied his seven steps to maximum pressure.

Marko Papic:

He should have been a lot harder.

Marko Papic:

He should have actually done what I said and been very aggressive on January 21st.

Marko Papic:

Killed someone right away like he did with General Soleimani.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, just boom, drone off Somebody just to send a message to Iran.

Marko Papic:

Hey man, I'm serious.

Marko Papic:

You can't drag me along the way you deal with Biden, with his negotiations.

Marko Papic:

And I think that the problem is Donald Trump almost proved why his

Marko Papic:

own negotiating style works and whatever he's been doing for the past

Marko Papic:

six months with Iran doesn't work.

Marko Papic:

You know, like he lost control of these negotiations because he was a little bit

Marko Papic:

too establishment, a little bit too CFR.

Marko Papic:

You know, he, he, he wasn't Donald Trump enough.

Marko Papic:

Uh, remember just a, a little reminder for everyone listening on January 3rd, 2020

Marko Papic:

when they killed Soleimani, the US was negotiating with Iran at the time in Oman,

Marko Papic:

they just killed this guy as a, what's up?

Marko Papic:

That's, that's what Donald Trump did.

Marko Papic:

I firmly believe that had he won the 2020 election, there would've

Marko Papic:

been a deal with Iran right away, because Iran was like, oh my God.

Marko Papic:

And I think that they themselves were like, oh, look at this.

Marko Papic:

This guy wants peace and he wants low oil prices, so he's not gonna bomb us.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

And I think they, they, they took that narrative, that meme too far.

Marko Papic:

In fact, I had several clients say to me, but Donald Trump wants to low oil prices.

Marko Papic:

And I'm like, look, he does, but he's not myopic.

Marko Papic:

He doesn't need them tomorrow.

Marko Papic:

If oil prices go to 120 bucks for a month, like the world's not gonna end.

Marko Papic:

It's not

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they're not going, I mean, they were up 11% when I went to sleep last night.

Jacob Shapiro:

They were up six and a half percent this morning.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, well, because

Marko Papic:

Iran is, because Iran is following.

Marko Papic:

The pattern of last year because it's not retaliating against, you know,

Marko Papic:

ways that oil prices will go up.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

One last thing I wanna say.

Marko Papic:

I do also hear a lot of people say, but wait a minute.

Marko Papic:

What does this mean for inflation?

Marko Papic:

And so on?

Marko Papic:

Don't worry about it, just do not worry about it.

Marko Papic:

And I'll tell you why.

Marko Papic:

There's absolutely no way that any inflationary spike because of

Marko Papic:

conflict in the Middle East, is gonna lead to central banks around

Marko Papic:

the world raising interest rates.

Marko Papic:

Are you nuts?

Marko Papic:

Jay Powell is not gonna like do the bidding of the supreme leader.

Marko Papic:

He's not gonna like raise interest rates to slow down the pace of

Marko Papic:

the economy as some robot, some automaton, like, oh, energy prices

Marko Papic:

rising, must raise interest rates.

Marko Papic:

No, bro, like Iran is attacking global shipping.

Marko Papic:

No, we're not.

Marko Papic:

Like they're not gonna raise interest rates.

Marko Papic:

Not even considerate.

Marko Papic:

And that's why I would definitely like fading oil.

Marko Papic:

On day one of this is dumb.

Marko Papic:

You should definitely not do that.

Marko Papic:

But fading the market move, you absolutely should do this.

Marko Papic:

There's no way that this is gonna be negative for, uh, stocks.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, it's right now, uh, noon, New York time on Friday the

Marko Papic:

13th and s and p 500 is down point 44.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, it's good for defense stocks literally everywhere.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I I I'm glad that you brought up Soleimani 'cause that might be a

Jacob Shapiro:

good way to, to land the plane here.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, because the Soleimani thing gets to the, the point about

Jacob Shapiro:

Iranian domestic politics.

Jacob Shapiro:

We've talked a little bit about the US and about Israel, but if you think

Jacob Shapiro:

about Iranian domestic politics, I mean, you're right, it's really complicated.

Jacob Shapiro:

So we're not gonna be able to treat it with the nuance that it deserves.

Jacob Shapiro:

But think of it in terms of hard liners like the IRGC and who believe

Jacob Shapiro:

in the revolution and everything else, versus the pragmatists

Jacob Shapiro:

Rouhani, really the most recent one.

Jacob Shapiro:

But you know, who wanna have their cake and eat it too?

Jacob Shapiro:

They want Iran to be part of the global economy.

Jacob Shapiro:

They wanna relax some of the religious restrictions.

Jacob Shapiro:

But okay, you can have the revolution and these two factions sort of

Jacob Shapiro:

squaring off against each other.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I. One of the strategic reasons to off soleimani, not just that you're

Jacob Shapiro:

sending a message, you're also getting rid of the leader who is on the

Jacob Shapiro:

hardliner side, the one who was gonna be opposing negotiations tooth and nail.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if you can empower the pragmatist to some extent and then, uh, to

Jacob Shapiro:

your, I'm just like butchering your point about there probably would've

Jacob Shapiro:

been a deal because getting rid of soleimani and throwing the IRGC into

Jacob Shapiro:

chaos, maybe you can make an argument that now you're giving some power.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, to the pragmatists, uh, going forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

But just, just to say that like, there's also an internal Iranian issue here,

Jacob Shapiro:

and I think when we're thinking sort of as you said profoundly about what

Jacob Shapiro:

happens next, um, I, I think there's a lot to be said about like Israel getting

Jacob Shapiro:

short-term benefit, but at what long-term cost the, the changing nature of war.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like another example of intelligence and drones and technology enabling

Jacob Shapiro:

things that even 10 years ago might not have been possible.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then like, what does this mean for the future of Iran long term?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because eventually Iran is going to come in from the cold, and when

Jacob Shapiro:

it does, it will be one of the greatest frontier opportunities ever.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, like, it's, it's an incredible country with incredible

Jacob Shapiro:

human capital and resources and all these other sorts of things, and

Jacob Shapiro:

it will not be isolated forever.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, so I, I'm always sort of waiting from that perspective, but

Marko Papic:

one, one, I think

Jacob Shapiro:

we'll be waiting a lot longer.

Marko Papic:

Well, since we're, yeah, since we're doing kind of closing

Marko Papic:

statements, here's what I would say.

Marko Papic:

I would say that geopolitics is a funny thing, you know?

Marko Papic:

Um, and we as humans, we desensitize.

Marko Papic:

We're, we're starting to desensitize to what I've been saying is a

Marko Papic:

multipolar world since 2011.

Marko Papic:

That's been my call.

Marko Papic:

Think about it, 10 years ago, if you told me just that Israel and Iran

Marko Papic:

would exchange Christmas of fire fire, which is what happened last year.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

I would've said, oil prices are 150 right away, and here we are.

Marko Papic:

Not only has Israel been attacked by a massive terrorist attack supported

Marko Papic:

by Iran in some capacity, even to gently on October 7th, not only

Marko Papic:

have we lived through that, but that happened almost two years ago.

Marko Papic:

Since then, Israel and Iran have exchanged cruise missile fire, and now Israel has

Marko Papic:

attacked Iran and might attack it again.

Marko Papic:

And SAP 500 is down 0.4%, which is like a random day.

Marko Papic:

Oil prices are up more than they've ever been up intraday.

Marko Papic:

I think we hit significant increase in oil prices, so no doubt there,

Marko Papic:

but you know, they're like 6% and the world's not ending.

Marko Papic:

And people are like, yeah, I mean, it is, I guess Iraq is gonna retaliate

Marko Papic:

against Israel, like, you know, whatever.

Marko Papic:

Like it is what it is.

Marko Papic:

This is the world we live in.

Marko Papic:

I mean, a couple of weeks ago, India and Pakistan exchanged fire.

Marko Papic:

You and I barely got to squeeze them in between the NBA finals and like the,

Marko Papic:

the fiscal bill in the United States.

Marko Papic:

This is very interesting to me and I think it's something for everyone

Marko Papic:

on this call to who's listening.

Marko Papic:

If you're an investor, this is really important for you.

Marko Papic:

But if you're just a regular person, like listening to our podcast,

Marko Papic:

trying to figure out what's going on with the world, this is the world.

Marko Papic:

It doesn't mean that the world is descending into chaos and

Marko Papic:

there there's gonna be World War III at the end of the rainbow.

Marko Papic:

This can just be our world for the next 50 years.

Marko Papic:

This is what the 19th century looked like, and it's considered

Marko Papic:

the longest period of peace.

Marko Papic:

The long peace, 1812 to 1914, a hundred years of what we consider peace was

Marko Papic:

interspersed with conflicts that just did not blow out of their region.

Marko Papic:

You know, and I think that's what I would end it on.

Marko Papic:

This is interesting.

Marko Papic:

We had India, Pakistan, we have this, we had Russia, Armenia, sja, Russia, Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

Like things are, things are cooking here.

Marko Papic:

There, there's a lot of pots on our stove of geopolitics, but none of

Marko Papic:

them are really, uh, overflowing.

Marko Papic:

And that is what multipolarity is like.

Marko Papic:

It sucks because it means people will die more so than when somebody's in charge.

Marko Papic:

On the other hand, it doesn't mean that every conflict immediately has

Marko Papic:

to become a regional configuration.

Marko Papic:

And I don't think a lot of people have really, uh, wrapped their

Marko Papic:

brains around that fact 'cause they just don't know enough.

Marko Papic:

History and human history is about multipolarity.

Marko Papic:

It's not about hegemony or by.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Or wrap their brains around the fact at how geopolitically insignificant

Jacob Shapiro:

the Middle East has become.

Jacob Shapiro:

The Middle East was important in the latter half of the

Jacob Shapiro:

20th century for two reasons.

Jacob Shapiro:

Number one, oil, number two, it was a proxy battleground between the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States and the Soviet Union.

Jacob Shapiro:

So between Exactly.

Jacob Shapiro:

Cold Wars over, there's no China doing battle with the United States over.

Jacob Shapiro:

No.

Jacob Shapiro:

They had be the proxies via Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like it's all the same.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that's gone.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, and oil, nobody gives a frack every, literally, ah, you like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the United States has oil Nice.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the Chinese are building reactors and Europe's doing hydrogen.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like they're on borrowed time.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's why that's the, is building, you know, Neo in the middle of the desert.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause they're on borrowed time.

Jacob Shapiro:

Just to,

Marko Papic:

just to be clear, they would, if Iran had the minerals, the balls

Marko Papic:

to attack I, uh, the, the facilities.

Marko Papic:

But Saudi Arabia has moved on.

Marko Papic:

You know, and the other issue, the other issue that I don't think, we also have

Marko Papic:

wrapped our brains around US taxpayers by supporting the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.

Marko Papic:

Are defending Chinese strategic interests.

Marko Papic:

Let me say that again.

Marko Papic:

If you're an American listening to this, you're paying taxes in parts of China

Marko Papic:

can be safe because it's not US oil supply that the fifth fleet is guarding.

Marko Papic:

It's the rest of the world.

Marko Papic:

And that's maybe the one vestigial part of Unipolarity mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Of hegemony that America still performs.

Marko Papic:

I know you gotta go so we can wrap it on this.

Marko Papic:

All I would say is that Chinese and American interests are not that misaligned

Marko Papic:

when it comes to the Middle East.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and Chinese statement, uh, after this conflict was pretty muted.

Marko Papic:

They didn't really just support Iran.

Marko Papic:

They kind of said, Hey, both sides need to calm down.

Marko Papic:

Um, and I think that that's interesting as well.

Marko Papic:

I think that's a very nuanced point you're saying, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

In other words, this Soviet Union in the US had clearly delineated interests.

Marko Papic:

It's not that clear anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, and I guess like it's shame on us for leaving it on this

Jacob Shapiro:

and only bringing them up now because for me the real question is, okay

Jacob Shapiro:

President Erdogan, what's your move?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because if this is your backyard, if this is the neo Ottoman Empire, if

Jacob Shapiro:

all these powers are like whatever, like this is Turkey's backyard and now

Jacob Shapiro:

you've got Israel and Iran like with blows, and maybe that's good for you.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe you want to break out the popcorn and deal with

Jacob Shapiro:

whoever is left over afterwards.

Jacob Shapiro:

But like said it, Turkey is the quiet one that is like, we should all be watching

Jacob Shapiro:

how they react because that's probably gonna define this more than anything

Marko Papic:

else.

Marko Papic:

You took your very high in our draft, so you took Turkey.

Marko Papic:

Sorry, Turkey high in the draft.

Marko Papic:

So let's see it.

Marko Papic:

I did let, let's see.

Marko Papic:

That potential.

Marko Papic:

Let's it,

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm waiting.

Jacob Shapiro:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank you.

Jacob Shapiro:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

Cheers.

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