Ethiopia's New War

Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? Super. Nicholas Norbrook of The Africa Report maps the forces pulling at a country that was, until recently, one of the fastest-growing economies on earth - a messianic prime minister with a very young team, Emirati money on several sides at once, Egypt quietly assembling a coalition to box Addis in, and a short run to the Red Sea coast that would be very easy to attempt and very hard to survive.

We've put together a little primer on the conflict because this one is confusing as hell.

General Context:

Eritrea was a federated part of Ethiopia from the 1950's until the 1990s. Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia, and Tigrayans are the ethnic group who live there - roughly 6% of Ethiopians identify as Tigrayan, although the Tigrayan People's Libreration front ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2018. Tigrayans speak Tigrinya - the same language as the Eritrean highlanders just across the border (the Tigrinya people), who make up about half of Eritrea’s population. Same language, same church, same highland culture, split by a border Italy drew in the 1890s.

Modern Conflict Timeline:

• 1991 - The TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front) overthrows Ethiopia’s military dictatorship and runs the country until 2018. Eritrea gains its independence and breaks away fully from Ethiopia.
• 1998 - A border war with Eritrea is fought by a Tigrayan-led Ethiopia, largely on Tigrayan ground, with ~100,000+ people dead. Conflict ends in 2000.
• 2018 - Abiy Ahmed takes power in Ethiopia, sidelines the TPLF, makes peace with Eritrea, and collects a Nobel Peace Prize.
• 2020 - Eritrean troops help Abiy Ahmed crush Tigrayan resistance. The Pretoria Agreement freezes that war in November 2022 without settling any of it.
• 2026 - In September, the fighting reignited, now with Tigray and Eritrea loosely opposing Ethiopia.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(01:20) - Abiy Ambition and Ethiopia

(03:33) - Development Model Shift

(06:39) - South Korea Lessons METEC

(09:13) - New War Regional Risks

(11:15) - Ethno Federalism and TPLF

(13:16) - Outside Powers and Dam

(15:40) - Why Regions Splinter

(20:56) - Unraveling or Recohere

(26:30) - Eritrea Whiplash Explained

(31:53) - Gulf Rivalries and Drones

(38:07) - What Happens Next

(42:04) - Why This Matters Outro

--

Referenced in the Show:

The Africa Report: https://www.theafricareport.com/author/nicholas-norbrook/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--